Main points: 1 At present, the risk preference for the computer industry is still low, and the state of suppressed valuation has not changed yet; 2. However, when the characteristics of the industry are valuable after all, two judgments should be taken into account: (1) the industry attribute determines the value space brought by the landing of new business, and the market will usually be reflected rapidly for a short time. (2) The external environment cannot be improved for a long time. We still suggest that the layout should choose the fields and stocks that support the current business valuation and have positive marginal changes in operating indicators, demand trends, new technologies and new markets. The smart car sector and intelligent manufacturing software are the most clear, and the IT infrastructure is the inflection point of the superposition of the undervalued level and the recovery of downstream demand. 3。
The landing direction and trend of new business are determined, but the improvement of financial indicators in the current period makes relatively little contribution to the change of static valuation, such as Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co.Ltd(002153) etc., which are greatly affected by the market environment and need to wait temporarily. 4. Kingdee International has obvious comparative advantages, which is also affected by the market environment, including the trading characteristics of Hong Kong stocks. However, it has been fully digested since the beginning of the year. 5. For the rest of the broad e-government areas, which are mainly oriented to the public sector, it is difficult to expect that the downstream spending capacity will not be damaged in the foreseeable time of this year. 6. For the medical it part, we expect the demand for orders to remain good, and the pace of actual operation depends on the situation changes of the subsequent epidemic.
The current status continues to recommend areas where static valuation continues to digest and new business prospects are promising: 1 The current static valuation pressure of the above key companies is small or even underestimated. 2. The commercialization of new technologies and even the signing of large orders will bring rapid recognition of short-term value: (1) for example, the threshold of b-end software knowhow and technical standards is much higher than that of C-end; (2) Even the traditional authorization mode will also have the effect of rapid improvement of corresponding value. Large orders are locked in customers’ usage habits (stickiness) and corresponding expenses in the next five years, usually including service upgrade fees and function module superposition (3) Therefore, the value change brought by software orders is more the discount greater than or equal to the order amount in the next few years. 3. Development stage: the cabin area of intelligent vehicle is in the rapid development stage from 1 to N; The driving domain is in progress from 0 to 1. Intelligent manufacturing software is in the stage of rapid penetration and strong demand. 4. Common misunderstandings in the market: (1) underestimate the technical threshold and R & D cycle, resulting in insufficient understanding of the certainty of subsequent orders. (2) In terms of the understanding of the professional division of labor in the science and technology industry, there are strong worries about the vertical integration of the industrial chain. ① For example, they are too worried that end customers control the whole industrial chain and do everything, while they lack understanding of the reasons for the industrial division of labor under the background of high-tech threshold, such as “knowhow” and economy, as well as the complex competition and cooperation relationship between customers and suppliers. ② For another example, we have high expectations for the modular characteristics of MES and other software businesses and the time accumulation required for the overall upgrade between scheme design and secondary development and implementation. ③ Underestimating the software threshold leads to the inability to grasp the trend of software and hardware separation with the increase of value and importance.
Risk tip: due to changes in market sentiment factors such as the epidemic situation, a large number of subdivisions that rely too much on the public sector are under pressure.
