The first quarterly reports of fund bosses have been released one after another. Some people quoted scriptures to start “psychological massage” for investors; Some people express their feelings and shout “bottom” in unison.
Zhu Shaoxing of Wells Fargo Fund: if you focus on a longer time dimension, it is meaningless to be overly pessimistic about the market.
China Post Fund guoxiaowen: in the short term, we think 3000 points is the phased bottom of the market!
Li Xiaoxing of Yinhua Fund: Generally speaking, we are very optimistic about the equity market.
GF Liu Gesong: with the convening of the first quarter financial committee meeting, the market has obvious bottom characteristics.
Jingshun Great Wall Yang Ruiwen: every time when the market falls into self doubt, the market bottoms out.
China Europe Fund Zhou Yuwen: not pessimistic about the future, quite a few of the track stocks have basically been adjusted, and the foam is very small.
top stream shouting “bottom”
Zhu Shaoxing of Wells Fargo fund admitted in the first quarterly report of Wells Fargo Tianhui that it is indeed difficult to draw an optimistic conclusion by analyzing the short-term market environment at the current time point. If we focus on a longer time dimension, it is meaningless to be overly pessimistic about the market.
Also not pessimistic is Li Xiaoxing of Yinhua Fund, who explained in 5700 words in the quarterly report: “on the whole, we are very optimistic about the equity market and believe that the economic growth in the future will be stronger than the market expectation.”
In this regard, he made an analysis from three aspects: from the short-term perspective, the valuation contraction since the beginning of the year has entered the end stage; From the medium and long-term perspective, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has brought the globalization process that has lasted for many years to an end and the anti globalization to an beginning; From a longer perspective, the dollar, as a recognized reserve currency and hard currency, will gradually come to an end.
GF Liu Gesong also said: “with the convening of the first quarter financial committee meeting, the market has obvious bottom characteristics. From a medium-term and long-term perspective, we are not pessimistic about the future capital market.” He believes that from the perspective of cost performance, after the adjustment in the first quarter, the valuation level of many industries has returned to the position at the end of 2018. It is judged that the market may usher in a structural market from the second quarter.
“In the short term, we think 3000 is the phased bottom of the market.” Guoxiaowen of China Post Fund said that for growth stocks, as long as the underlying performance is not significantly revised down, there will be significant absolute returns at the end of the year.
China Europe Fund Zhou Wei Wen has described the three reasons for “not pessimistic”: first, a considerable part of the adjustment of the track has basically been completed, and the foam has been very small. Secondly, in the past two or three years, the stock prices of many excellent companies in the sector have rarely risen, and the industry boom will usher in an improvement after bottoming out, and investment opportunities will gradually appear; Finally, although the world is facing the situation of liquidity tightening, the previous policies of the Central Bank of China are more forward-looking, and there is room for loose monetary policy, which is relatively favorable.
Yang Ruiwen, manager of Jingshun Great Wall Fund, said that since becoming a fund manager, he has experienced three rounds of abnormal fluctuations from 2015 to 2016, from beginning to end in 2018, and a market retreat of nearly 20% every year. “Every time he falls into self doubt in the market, the market bottoms out.”
In terms of investment opportunities, Yang Ruiwen believes that the first half of the year is dominated by cycle and the second half will be dominated by scientific and technological growth.
big man goes to battle “psychological massage”
Zhang Kun, the “first brother of public offering”, wrote more than 1400 words in the strategy analysis part of the first quarterly report and started a “psychological massage” for investors.
“After millions of years of natural selection, our brains have developed the characteristics that are most conducive to survival, but some of them are detrimental to investment,” he said
In his view, rational analysis is much weaker in the brain than feeling and emotion. However, he said that frankly accepting these characteristics may be the premise of maintaining peace of mind, so as to avoid the harm of these characteristics to investment.
He analyzed that when the stock fell, it might take some time and restraint to calm down, and then asked himself a few questions: did my fear come from the decline in the stock price or from the negative change in the fundamentals? Does the original investment reason no longer exist? The share price is lower. As a long-term net buyer, shouldn’t I be happier? To judge the authenticity of something, the most reliable way is to prove its wrongness (falsification).
Finally, Zhang Kun concluded: “the stock price is like the weather, which is always changing, unpredictable and difficult to grasp, while the enterprise value is like the climate, which is always changing slowly and regularly. In the long run, it is the climate that really determines a regional environment.”
“Samuel Smiles, a British social reformer, once said:… Cold is the mother of thrift. Therefore, people in the Nordic countries attribute their prosperity in part to the harsh climate. The cold forces them to store food, coal and clothes for winter in summer, and encourages them to build houses and manage their homes diligently.” This is a sentence written by Fu Youxing of GF in the first quarterly report.
He wanted to show that sowing comes before harvest. The current downturn makes investors feel difficult in the short term, but this is also a favorable window for saving and investing in the future.
Liugesong of GF also said that considering from the perspective of industrial development and medium – and long-term investment, there are many industries with investment value in the A-share market at present. I hope fund investors can be patient.
some people completely transfer their positions, others adhere to their faith
Zhao Bei and CAI Songsong, two track players, showed different ideas of warehouse adjustment in the first quarterly report.
Zhao Bei is currently on leave, and her fund is temporarily managed by Tan Donghan. Take ICBC Frontier Medical as an example. In terms of position selection, when the valuation at the beginning of the year is high and needs to be digested, the fund is reduced to the lowest position. After March, the valuation has been greatly digested, and the fund has increased its positions.
“CXO’s fundamentals are high and the boom trend is maintained. Medical services, pharmacies and consumer goods are impacted by the epidemic to a certain extent, but the overall impact is controllable. The short-term impact does not affect the long-term business trend and competitiveness. The market once worried too much about geopolitical factors, which also brought attractive undervalued buying points to the pharmaceutical growth stocks represented by CXO.” The fund manager said in the quarterly report.
In the first quarterly report driven by Noah’s innovation, it can be clearly seen that CAI Songsong has entered the “counting in the East and counting in the west”.
\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 2683 Hainan Dadonghai Tourism Centre (Holdings) Co.Ltd(000613) 00579 Northking Information Technology Co.Ltd(002987) Xgd Inc(300130) Inspur Software Co.Ltd(600756) Shanghai Athub Co.Ltd(603881) Client Service International Inc(300663) Pansoft Company Limitid(300996) Beijing Baolande Software Corporation(688058) 。 Compared with the end of 2021, none of the top ten heavyweight stocks driven by noan’s innovation is related to “counting from the east to the west”.
Cai Songsong said that from the perspective of segments, digital computing from the east to the west, digital RMB, network security and industry information innovation are opportunities that can be grasped from top to bottom. The low valuation of the industry and the inflection point of industrial fundamentals are its biggest investment logic.
However, Cai Songsong’s noan grew into one of the top ten heavyweight stocks at the end of the first quarter and is still the same semiconductor stock
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