Since the beginning of 2022, the market has been constantly adjusted. However, the reporter of the “daily economic news” noted that recently, taking advantage of the sharp decline of the stock market, many star private placement started the large-scale research of listed companies against the trend to prepare for the later market rebound. In addition, a number of 10 billion private placements have opened “alternative bottom reading” and completed self purchase of 100 million yuan one after another.
Some private placement believe that the real bottom of the market is often the triple superposition of valuation bottom, policy bottom and emotional bottom. How far is the market bottom after the policy bottom?
stock market fell, but star private placement bucked the trend
Since the beginning of 2022, the market has been constantly adjusted, and the share prices of many stocks have hit record lows, which has hurt institutional investors. However, the more the market falls, the more opportunities there are. According to the data of China stock market news choice, in the past month, the number of institutional research has reached 23998, and the number of listed companies surveyed by institutions is 399. From the sectors concerned by institutional investors in the past month, the metal / non-metallic new materials sector has become the focus of institutional investors; The second is computer software, ranking second; The third is medical devices; The fourth place is the semiconductor sector.
It is worth noting that the data of institutional research also reveal the sharp changes in the current market style. In the past month, institutional investors have been enthusiastic about the research on the main board, investigating 13287 stocks in the main board market, an increase of 2924 times compared with the previous period. The GEM stocks were investigated 6217 times, down 847 times compared with the previous period.
From the perspective of individual stocks investigated by institutions, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ranked first, and attracted the attention of 566 institutional investors; The second is Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , which has attracted the attention of 546 institutional investors; The third is Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , which has been investigated by 423 institutions in recent January.
With the market callback, many private equity institutions opened the research mode against the trend to prepare for the later market rebound. According to the data of China stock market news choice, from March 24 to April 24, 2021, private institutions conducted a total of 3261 surveys of listed companies, including 4008 listed companies, setting off a small climax. In the same period this year, private institutions conducted a total of 3726 research on listed companies, with a total of 4639 listed companies. In terms of the number of surveys, it increased by 14% compared with the same period last year; In terms of the number of research companies, it increased by 15.7% compared with the same period last year.
Among them, 10 billion private placement Danshui spring has conducted 20 investigations in the past month, including 70 listed companies. On April 20, it participated in the investigation of five companies, including Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) . In addition, Danshui spring conducted research on 8 companies including Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd(002183) and others on April 12; On March 31, 9 companies including Glodon Company Limited(002410) were investigated.
Shanghai juming investment has conducted 21 surveys in recent January, with a total of 40 listed companies. Xingshi investment has also conducted 15 surveys, with a total of 30 companies. Shanghai Panjing investment has conducted 14 surveys, including 41 listed companies. The old 10 billion private placement of Shanghai Chongyang investment has conducted 17 investigations in recent months, and a total of 29 listed companies have been investigated. Shanghai chaos investment (Group) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Ge Weidong, conducted 11 surveys in the past month, with a total of 17 listed companies.
10 billion private placement “alternative bottom hunting” bucked the trend and completed 100 million yuan self purchase
Recently, the market has shown a trend of double bottoming, which makes the net product value of private equity institutions face some risks, but private equity bosses are “bottom hunting” with real gold and silver. On April 22, the well-known 10 billion private placement of Shi Feng assets announced that since September last year, the company, employees and shareholders have subscribed for 108 million yuan of the company’s fund products. It is understood that Cui Hongjian and Guo fengben, the core figures of Shi Feng assets, have served as the main principals of large asset management companies. The company’s self purchase is a long-term bullish on China’s economy and capital market, and has full confidence in the company’s fund products. The company and its shareholders will continue to increase their holdings of the company’s products in the future.
In fact, the self purchase of Shi Feng assets is not a case. Since this year, a number of star private placement have successively launched a self purchase plan of 100 million yuan, most of which have been completed. According to the statistics of private placement network, 11 private placements have announced self purchase this year, with a cumulative amount of nearly 1.4 billion yuan, of which 9 10 billion private placements have reached 1.18 billion yuan. So far, a number of private 100 million yuan self purchase plans have been completed. The total amount of the official purchase was 2530000 yuan, which was announced in April of this month; The products purchased with self owned funds have been fully paid, with a total of 10.07 million yuan. On April 12, Yongan Guofu announced that the company’s 100 million yuan self purchase plan was completed, and its own funds held 692460900 fund products in total.
On January 28, Jinglin assets, a 100 billion private placement giant, announced that the company and relevant fund managers would apply for the company’s fund products within 30 trading days from the announcement date, with a total amount of no less than 100 million yuan and a holding time of no less than three years; On January 29, Lingjun Investment announced that the company and its shareholders would increase their capital by 150 million yuan with their own funds, apply for their own products within five trading days, and firmly hold them for a long time; Quantization giant magic square quantization announced on January 28 that all employees and shareholders will raise no less than 150 million yuan of their own funds within three trading days. At the same time, the company will raise no less than 200 million yuan of their own funds within 10 trading days. A total of 350 million yuan will purchase all the company’s products and invest in the equity assets of the A-share market.
In this regard, Shi Feng assets also talked about some of his views on the future market in an interview with reporters. Shi Feng assets said that from an external point of view, the Fed’s contraction accelerated. Internally, the impact of the epidemic on the economy may be greater than that in the first quarter, and the downward trend of corporate profits is not expected to reach the bottom. Economic stabilization still needs new support, and real estate and consumption are the focus of follow-up. In the short term, the market still lacks positive factors for rebound and needs to wait for more policies.
Shi Feng assets also believes that under the pressure of negative factors, the probability of A-share market will continue to find the bottom, and we should continue to be cautious in operation. However, we also need to look at the negative factors objectively. The epidemic situation in Shanghai is certainly slowly entering the remission period, and there should be significant improvement after May; The Russian Ukrainian war will also enter the final stage in the near future; The 10-year US debt has also entered the top area at about 3%. Therefore, we believe that the turning point of the market should not be too far away.
organization: the rebound in the post epidemic era may be delayed, but will not be absent
For the judgment that the market has experienced a “double bottom” due to the recent sharp decline in the market, some private investors believe that the real bottom of the market is often the triple superposition of valuation bottom, policy bottom and emotional bottom.
Li Zhenhui, research director and fund manager of Quanjing fund, told reporters that the real bottom of the market is often the triple superposition of valuation bottom, policy bottom and emotional bottom. From the perspective of professional investment and a longer time span, at present, we still focus on evaluating and tracking the quality of the company’s operating assets, so as to reasonably or even underestimate the purchase and enjoy the investment return brought by the company’s growth. At present, we are optimistic about the position building opportunities of listed companies with definite performance growth and stable dividend return.
For the future, Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, told reporters that there are no positive factors at present. From the perspective of Chinese factors, it is difficult to reduce the reserve requirement in the two months after the April reduction. In addition, the LPR interest rate has not moved, and the expectation of monetary easing in the market has been greatly reduced. The bottom performance of listed companies can only be formed after the epidemic situation is controlled and the accumulated projects and funds in the early stage are converted into construction and production expansion. It is expected that the bottom performance may be formed in the second quarter. In addition, US inflation may slow down after May. At that time, the cooling of the Fed’s contraction expectation will also support the valuation of a shares. The market bottom will be formed only when the performance bottom of Chinese listed companies or the valuation bottom of foreign capital inflows are formed, and the probability will be from mid May to June.
Dongtuo investment fund manager Wang Chunxiu also told reporters that the recent continuous decline of the index is caused by multiple factors. At present, the epidemic has had a great impact on China’s economy, with uncertain economic development prospects and lack of investor confidence. Therefore, it is expected that the market will remain in a state of shock and adjustment. At present, the position of institutional investors represented by sunshine private placement has been very low, and the energy to smash the market is not enough. We think the current position is very close to the bottom of the market.
Xingshi investment recently released its investment strategy for the second quarter of 2022, pointing out that the beginning of this year is particularly difficult, but the opportunity is always generated in the crisis. The current data show that with the market sentiment falling to the freezing point, the cost performance of the stock market has reached an all-time high. Considering the strategic significance of steady growth this year, the more unfavorable the current environment is, the more positive the follow-up policy forces will be, and the positive factors are accumulating. Our long-term confidence in A-Shares comes from the improvement of asset profit quality brought by China’s economic transformation and upgrading and long-term risk resolution, which is a solid foundation for the long-term improvement of a shares.
Once the market pessimism is reversed, it will eventually drive the current oversold A-share market to return to long-term value. At present, a turnaround is brewing. At present, the high risk premium of A-Shares indicates the downturn of investor confidence, while positive changes have emerged and a turnaround is brewing. On this basis, we focus on consumer assets with low price to book ratio. After continuous adjustment under the impact of the epidemic, the price to book ratio of most consumer industries is at a medium low level in recent 10 years. Under the violent impact of the “black swan” incident, the supply of the consumer industry was completely cleared, and the long-term profitability of assets was significantly improved. Once the demand is normalized, the elasticity of profit improvement must be much higher than expected, focusing on aviation tourism, medicine, logistics, advertising media and other sectors.
Li Jing, director of stock research at Fidelity International, a foreign-funded institution, believes that although the economy is under pressure in the short term, we are still full of confidence in the long-term resilience and vitality of China’s economy. In fact, with the downward revision of the market valuation level, many industries have shown better “cost performance”, providing a broad stock pool for long-term investors. Of course, while buying high-quality stocks at a “discount”, investors also need to pay special attention to the balance sheet and cash flow statement. After all, only if they can withstand the wind and rain can they witness the rainbow; Only through the baptism of the cycle can it become an evergreen tree in the market. The rebound in the post epidemic era may be delayed, but it will not be absent. It is better to choose the time than the opportunity. We believe that patience will usher in the season of flowers.
