from the medium-term perspective, A-Shares are building a U-shaped bottom area
From the medium-term perspective, we continue to maintain the judgment that A-Shares are building a U-shaped bottom area. On the one hand, the policy bottom and credit bottom may have been roughly confirmed, and the subsequent profit bottom will be gradually completed in the medium term; On the other hand, the market valuation and sentiment indicators have also entered the bottom area of the market. Although there is still the possibility of continued decline in the follow-up, the space in terms of odds is relatively limited. Therefore, from the medium-term perspective, although the market bottom grinding process may continue to repeat, investors do not need to be too pessimistic and should patiently wait for the market to complete the construction of U-shaped bottom.
short term market still faces many challenges
First, we have not observed a significant improvement in economic data recently. On the contrary, some key micro high frequencies have deteriorated significantly against the background of the national multi-point spread of the epidemic. When we compare these data with the second quarter of 2020, it is not difficult to find that the current economic vitality is weaker than that in the second quarter of 2020.
Second, the last two weeks of April are the period of frequent thunderstorms in the annual report and the first quarterly report. At the same time, with the deterioration of economic micro data, investors' expected probability of the annual performance will continue to be revised down, putting pressure on the follow-up market.
Third, the US economy continues to remain strong, which may lead to the hawks of the Federal Reserve exceeding expectations.
Fourth, after the continuous decline of the market, the incremental capital is insufficient, and the micro liquidity is difficult to recover in the short term. The median net value of the fund is close to the historical extreme area, the issuance of new funds is depressed, the proportion of private equity funds touching the early warning line and liquidation line continues to rise, and the leveraged funds are relatively fragile.
Fifthly, under the combined action of export downward pressure, deviation from the monetary tone and fundamental pressure, the expectation of RMB depreciation is strong, which suppresses risk appetite.
industry configuration: focus on the gold sector of pig soda ash
From the perspective of the flow of public funds, nearly 30 billion funds flow to the new energy industry, including power equipment of nearly 15 billion and power batteries of nearly 10 billion. Medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (mainly pig breeding), basic chemical industry (mainly lithium chemicals and soda ash), non-ferrous metals (mainly precious metals) also exceeded 15 billion.
defensive counterattack, bargain hunting layout, recovery and steady growth
In the market bottom grinding period, investors should patiently wait for the market to complete the construction of U-shaped bottom. From the medium and long-term perspective, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, but should consider defensive counterattack and bargain hunting layout.
Defensive counterattack: 1) high dividend varieties such as urban commercial banks, agricultural commercial banks and hydropower stocks are still the first choice for bottom warehouse configuration. 2) from the experience of the epidemic, the mandatory sectors such as food processing have excess returns at the peak of the number of confirmed cases, and they have relatively countercyclical profit fluctuations in the period of profit decline. 3) At the same time, the textile sector is expected to have a strong short-term depreciation, and the textile sector must be selected in the near future.
Bargain hunting layout post epidemic recovery and steady growth overweight: 1) post epidemic recovery can be arranged at the production end and consumption end at the same time. The production end repair mainly focuses on logistics, automobile, etc. the consumption end repair aims at the required consumption ( Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing and food processing) + local consumption (Hong Kong stock catering, leisure food, medical services, film and television, etc.) with reasonable valuation, faster repair speed and higher certainty. 2) The real estate industry is still in a structure in which the policy continues to work, but the data has not yet warmed up. It is expected that the market's expectations for policies will continue until the real estate data clearly pick up. 2) Infrastructure construction has been clearly launched, and the prosperity of building materials is guaranteed.
risk tips : the economic downturn exceeded expectations, geopolitical risks and repeated epidemics
