Team core view:
At present, in this period of time, the external economy is at a high level and our economy is at a low level, which is the stage with the largest gap dislocation. The external liquidity is closing and we are releasing, which is also the stage with the greatest dislocation. In the second quarter, our judgment of the market is that the bottom region grasps the structural bottom and lingers, which may be affected up and down. The whole is in the range shock, so we can’t rule out another bottom, forming a “W” bottom with the previous low.
Gradually welcome the “big consumption” buying point. At present, it has entered the comfort zone of cost performance, odds and winning rate. Home furnishing, home appliances, consumer building materials, and service consumption (social service, aviation airports, medical services, media games), other consumer goods (consumer goods, Baijiu, pigs, etc.) can be concerned with three levels of big consumption.
For “big finance”: the short-term rise is too fast and urgent, and the stock game encounters twists and turns. However, the steady growth policy will be strengthened, and the “big finance” market is still worth looking forward to, using the high-quality target of adjusting the layout fundamentals. ① We can focus on large banks with undervalued “stagflation” and high dividend yield, and urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks with good performance growth in Chengdu Chongqing economic circle, Yangtze River Delta economic circle and other places. ② The high-quality real estate enterprises benefiting from the supply side reform deserve to continue to be allocated.
Valuation position of a shares:
Index: (1) current PE historical quantile: the highest index is Shenzhen Composite Index (35.8%), corresponding to 20.0 times of valuation; The lowest index is Kechuang 50 (0.0%), corresponding to 33.1 times the valuation. (2) Current historical quantile of Pb: the highest index is the gem index (54.8%), with a corresponding valuation of 5.5 times; The lowest index is Kechuang 50 (0.0%), with a corresponding valuation of 4.4 times. (3) PE trend of main indexes: Gem index and Kechuang 50 trend.
Style: (1) current PE historical quantile: the highest style is consumption (30.6%), corresponding to 25.8 times of valuation; The lowest style is the cycle (5.5%), corresponding to 13.1 times the valuation. (2) Current historical quantile of Pb: the highest style is consumption (48.5%), corresponding to 3.5 times of valuation; The lowest style is finance (0.0%), corresponding to 0.8x valuation.
Industry: (1) current PE historical quantile: the highest industry is automobile (74.9%), corresponding to 24.0 times of valuation; The lowest industry is media (4.1%), corresponding to 18.1 times the valuation. (2) Current historical quantile of Pb: the highest industry is catering tourism (75.0%), with a corresponding valuation of 4.9 times; The lowest industry is media (0.0%), with a corresponding valuation of 1.8 times. (3) PE growth rate is ahead of the industry trend: spinning and clothing hovers at the bottom, and power fluctuates in the middle and lower part. (4) Big financial Pb: the historical quantile is lower than 2%, which has reached a historical low.
Hong Kong stock valuation position:
Index: (1) current PE historical quantile: the highest index is Hang Seng China Enterprise Index (29.7%), corresponding to 8.4 times of valuation; The lowest index is Hang Seng Hong Kong stock connect (0.0%), corresponding to 8.6 times the valuation. (2) Current historical quantile of Pb: the highest index is Hang Seng China Enterprise Index (5.0%), corresponding to 0.9 times of valuation; The lowest index is Hang Seng Hong Kong stock connect (0.0%), corresponding to a valuation of 0.8 times.
Industry: current PE historical quantile: the highest industry is optional consumption in Hong Kong (96.0%), corresponding to 67.5 times of valuation; The lowest industry is Hong Kong Finance (0.2%), with a corresponding valuation of 5.9 times.
Risk tips:
The rise of risk-free interest rate, sharp macroeconomic fluctuations, industrial policy risks and market fluctuations exceeded expectations, the return of global capital to the United States exceeded expectations, the game between China and the United States exceeded expectations, and inflation exceeded expectations.
