Comments on key news of the week: RMB depreciated sharply and A-Shares bottomed out twice
China’s economic pressure is still great: the number of new cases + asymptomatic infections in Shanghai continues to increase, the standard reduction of 25bp is relatively restrained, the LPR in April was the same as that in the previous month, and the Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) performance did not meet expectations. Economic growth confidence was impacted, A-Shares bottomed twice, and the RMB also depreciated sharply. In addition, the external disturbance factors also increased: Russia and Ukraine opened the battle of Donbas, and the US bond interest rate rose above 2.9%.
Macro highlights: 1. The central bank and other two departments put forward 23 policies and measures to strengthen financial services and strengthen support for the real economy; 2. The Bureau of statistics released the economic data of the first quarter, and the year-on-year GDP was in line with expectations; 3. LPR quotation remained unchanged in April; 4. The State Council printed and distributed the opinions on promoting the development of individual pensions; 5. The CSRC held a symposium for the main principals of the national social security fund and some large banking and insurance institutions.
Resumption of A-share market: A-share fell, dominated by other services and optional consumption
Index and style: A shares fell, dominated by other services and optional consumption. Kechuang 50 and Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly, with weekly increases and decreases of – 3.22% and – 3.87% respectively. From the perspective of individual stock’s new high, the proportion of individual stocks whose share price hit a new high of 60 days and 250 days fell month on month. From the absolute performance of style, other services and optional consumption, the market, low P / E ratio and low profit stocks are dominant.
Industry performance: most fell, with textile and clothing, public utilities and beauty care leading the increase. From the perspective of individual stock highs, the proportion of 60 day high individual stocks in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, commerce, retail and coal industries is high.
Leading index: in the past 20 days, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 dominated, and banks, coal and transportation led the rise.
Valuation tracking: the valuation of A-Shares fell, and the degree of differentiation of Industry Valuation expanded slightly.
Overseas market review: most of the global stock markets fell, and the performance of A-Shares was weak
Most of the world’s major stock indexes fell, with Korea’s Kospi, Nikkei 225 and France’s CAC relatively dominant.
US stock market: the three major stock indexes fell in an all-round way, most industries fell, real estate, essential consumption and industrial performance ranked first, and the value and market style were relatively dominant. The overall valuation of the index is down, and the overall valuation of the industry is down.
Hong Kong Stock Market: the index fell across the board, most industries fell, and the comprehensive industry, essential consumer industry and telecommunications industry led the performance. The valuation of the index fell in an all-round way and the valuation of the industry fell in an all-round way.
Performance of major categories of assets: RMB depreciated sharply, and risk appetite at home and abroad fell
Global markets fell this week, with developed markets dominating. Commodity prices generally fell, with copper, gold, crude oil and industrial metals all falling. In terms of interest rate bonds, the long and short end interest rates of US bonds rebounded; In terms of credit bonds, China’s 3-year and 5-year AAA + medium note credit spreads narrowed; In terms of convertible bonds, the convertible bond index fell. In terms of exchange rate, the US dollar index rose and the RMB depreciated sharply. In terms of volatility, the VIX index rebounded.
In terms of the relative performance of commodities, copper gold ratio rose, oil gold ratio fell, and London gold / CRB industrial metals rose. In terms of the relative performance of the bond market, the interest rate spread between China and the United States has expanded and that between Germany and the United States has narrowed. In terms of the relative value of stocks and bonds, the revised risk premium under Wande’s full a caliber and the S & P 500 risk premium have all rebounded.
Leading assets: the US dollar, China national debt credit bonds and China national debt dominated the performance on the 20th.
Risk warning: Overseas volatility intensifies; Macroeconomic policy changes beyond expectations; Regulatory policies exceeded expectations.
