Production side observation: this week (4.18-4.23), the steel operating rate remained stable and the inventory continued to decline; The operating rate and inventory of coal increased month on month; The overall operating rate of chemical industry is improving, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt unit has not continued to pick up, which is still at a seasonal low level; The operating rate of all steel tires of automobiles increased. On the whole, the marginal production is good.
Demand side observation: this week (April 18-april 23), the margin of real estate warmed up, and the land transaction area and commercial housing transaction area of all lines of cities rebounded; The pace of infrastructure recovery accelerated, and the prices of major related products increased; Affected by the epidemic, the year-on-year decline in subway passenger volume in Shanghai continued to expand; The number of new cases of pneumonia (vid-17.4-19.4) has not increased compared with the number of new cases of local pneumonia (vid-17.4-17) last week. Baltic dry bulk freight rates rebounded, CCFI and SCFI freight rate indexes fell, and China's export boom declined.
Inflation observation: the average wholesale price of pork this week (4.18-4.23) increased by 0.3 yuan / kg compared with last week; Brent crude oil price rose 1.3% to 105.8 US dollars / barrel compared with last week; Copper and aluminum prices rose by 0.2% and 1.3% to US $102736 and US $3264.5 respectively.
Risk warning: policy uncertainty; Fundamentals exceeded expectations.
