Price: steel price differentiation this week. This week, the price of 20mmhrb400 thread was 5090 yuan / ton, up + 0.2% from last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 5150 yuan / ton, up – 1.2% from last week. The price of raw materials was divided this week, and the price of port iron ore fell this week compared with last week; Coke prices rose compared with last week; The price of scrap steel increased compared with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar rebounded slightly this week. In terms of long-term process, we calculated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week was + 40 yuan / ton, + 26 yuan / ton and + 19 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of electric furnace steel rebounded slightly this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the output of deformed steel bars fell on a weekly basis, the warehouses of the five major steel plants fell on a weekly basis, and the social warehouses fell on a weekly basis. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.94 million tons, with a weekly increase of 57800 tons, of which the output of construction steel decreased by 10600 tons, the output of sector increased by 68400 tons, and the output of rebar decreased by 2900 tons to 307000 tons this week. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties decreased by 308100 tons to 161698 million tons, the total inventory of steel mills decreased by 6.8436 million tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 7800 tons, of which the rebar social warehouse decreased by 170500 tons and the factory warehouse decreased by 50800 tons. In terms of apparent consumption, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 3.2913 million tons, up 173500 tons month on month.
Investment suggestion: the national development and Reform Commission requires to continue to reduce the output of crude steel this year, and the output of steel is limited. On the demand side, Shanghai has gradually returned to work. With the reduction of reserve requirements, the relaxation of real estate and the steady growth of infrastructure, steel consumption is expected to improve. In the short term, the marginal intensity of steel consumption continued to rise this week. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of deformed steel bars was 3.2913 million tons, up 173500 tons on a week-on-week basis. In terms of inventory, the steel social warehouse and factory warehouse fell at the same time this week. On the whole, the target of reducing crude steel output limits steel output, superimposes the resumption of work in Shanghai, the policy effects of standard reduction, real estate relaxation and stable growth of infrastructure gradually appear, the steel consumption is expected to rebound, and the steel profit is expected to pick up. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel sector: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) , , ; 3) Target of Superalloy: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; 4) Target of graphite electrode: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) ; 5) Subject matter of pipes: Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) ; 6) High dividend targets: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
