Main points:
Tesla‘s performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations. Under the control of the epidemic, Jilin fully resumed work and production. Shanghai gradually promoted Tesla‘s sales of 310000 vehicles in the first quarter, with a net profit of US $3.32 billion and a gross profit margin of 32.9%. The average inventory cycle in the global market is only 3 days; Tesla‘s global production target in 2022 is 1.5 million vehicles, maintaining an annual delivery growth target of 50%. The Berlin plant and the Texas plant have started production and delivery of complete vehicles in March and April. At present, the production capacity is climbing, and 4680 new batteries are gradually carried in the follow-up. Due to the epidemic, the Shanghai plant has been affected by the production capacity for a certain period of time, but has resumed production, which strongly supports the production target with the global production capacity climbing. The impact of China’s epidemic continues, and Jilin has fully resumed work and production. FAW Group and 502 parts suppliers, except 20 parts suspended due to sufficient inventory, have all resumed work and production, with a resumption rate of 96%; 70% of the first batch of 666 key enterprises in Shanghai have resumed work and production, 60 enterprises in Anting resumed work and production, SAIC Lingang factory and Tesla factory resumed production on the 19th, and the whole vehicle was offline. Supply chain parts supporting enterprises have also resumed work and production one after another.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2021 saw a significant increase in net profit, and the transmission of the cost of battery price rise was gradually in progress. The leading position of battery was stable. The revenue of battery leader Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2021 was 130.4 billion, with a net profit of 15.9 billion, an increase of 185% at the same time. It was partial to the forecast upper limit. The shipment of power was 117 GWH and the installed capacity was 97 GWH. It is expected to continue to increase significantly this year, with a global share of 33% and still improving; Although the gross profit margin decreased slightly due to the rise in the cost of all materials in the past 21 years, the sales price of 21q4 has increased slightly, indicating that the price increase for the whole vehicle factory has been carried out gradually, which can effectively transmit the cost and has a stable leading position.
The short-term epidemic affected the demand and supply, released the correction of high lithium price, the continuous rise of concentrate price and the upward movement of profit. Affected by the epidemic, some car enterprises stopped production, and the decline of short-term orders and production scheduling of batteries and midstream affected the demand for lithium salt. With the rise of temperature, the output in Qinghai gradually increased, and the resumption of production after the inspection and repair period of some manufacturers also brought some increment. At the same time, the import of lithium salt increased in March, and the high lithium price was slightly corrected; However, in the medium and long term, with the resumption of work and production under the control of the epidemic, the demand for new energy vehicles has rebounded rigidly, and the supply of mainstream mines has not increased significantly. The supply and demand of lithium is still in a tight state. The rising price of lithium concentrate strongly supports the high price of lithium, and the profits of the industrial chain continue to move upward. Yichun era won a lithium exploration right in Yichun, Jiangxi Province with 865 million yuan. The battery factory deeply arranged lithium resources, and China accelerated development to ensure the safety of the supply chain.
Investment suggestions: 1. Release of production capacity, relief of cost pressure and recovery of gross profit battery plants: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , etc; Second, supply and demand support the high profit of lithium price and release lithium resource companies: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , etc; III. clear pattern, obvious advantages and tight supply and demand of materials in the middle reaches: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , etc.
Risk warning: the development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; The progress of energy storage and lead-acid substitution is less than expected; The industry competition is fierce, and the product price drops more than expected; Production capacity expansion is less than expected and product development is less than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates.
