Float glass inventory remained at a high level and rebounded slightly after unit profit hit the bottom
The average price of float glass in China this week rose slightly by 0.33% month on month compared with last week. The overall market demand is general, and the sustainability of replenishment of processing plants still needs to wait and see. The manufacturer’s inventory was 61.82 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.24 million weight boxes compared with last week. The production capacity in the week was 172025t / D, unchanged month on month. Cost side: during the week, the price of heavy alkali rose slightly again, the fuel price changed little, and the overall cost increased slightly. During the week, the profit of the comprehensive industry rose slightly by 4.86% month on month, but the release of demand in the original film market is still relatively limited. A small amount of short-term just need to pick up goods will continue. It is expected that the comprehensive profit of the industry will hover at the bottom with a high probability in the short term. We believe that with the improvement of the epidemic situation and the fall of reserve requirements, it is conducive to the restoration of real estate confidence, the demand side of float glass is still expected to pick up, and the demand for q2-q3 is expected to reach a small peak.
The supply of photovoltaic glass continued to release, and the inventory continued to decline during the week
Last week, the price of 2mm photovoltaic coated glass was 21.15 yuan / m2, unchanged month on month; The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic coated glass was 27.5 yuan / m2, unchanged month on month. The manufacturer’s inventory days were 16.88 days, down 9.07% from last week. The price of silicon materials continued to rise, the price remained high, the enthusiasm of component manufacturers to prepare goods was acceptable, the terminal power stations successively accepted new prices, and the trading volume increased. In March, China’s photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 2.35gw, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13%. In the future, if the price of upstream raw materials falls, the medium and long-term photovoltaic installed capacity demand is expected to continue to improve in 22 / 23 years. On the supply side, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass last week was 51910 tons, an increase of 3.39% month on month. The production capacity in 22 years still needs to be continuously observed. At present, the inventory pressure of most manufacturers is controllable, and the profit margin is compressed due to the rise of costs. We believe that with the release of silicon material production capacity in the second half of the year, the price of photovoltaic glass is still expected to rise periodically, and we continue to be optimistic about the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price of leading companies in the future.
Continue to recommend photovoltaic glass faucets, and float faucets have medium and long-term investment value
1) photovoltaic glass: the demand of photovoltaic industry is expected to improve marginally, the cost advantage of glass leader is significant, and the capacity end has high growth. It is recommended that leading companies with valuation and cost performance [Xinyi solar energy], [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] (both covered jointly with Dianxin);
2) float glass: the share price of float glass leader has been greatly adjusted. Considering the profit and valuation of its float business under equilibrium and the additional growth brought by new business, we believe that the current float glass leader has good medium and long-term investment value, and continue to recommend [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ], [Xinyi Glass] (with a certain capacity of building energy-saving glass);
3) new glass materials: UTG original film breaks through the foreign monopoly, and the production and sales are expected to grow rapidly after domestic replacement. It is continuously recommended [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ] (jointly covered with the electronic group).
Risk tip: the general rise of raw materials has delayed the downstream demand for real estate, photovoltaic and other products beyond expectations; Float production capacity and capacity utilization increased more than expected.
