Market review this week:
CITIC coal index closed at 306278 points, down 7.38%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.19pct, ranking 27th in the list of gains and losses of CITIC sector.
Analysis of key areas:
Power coal: overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao railway & import upside down, coal price is difficult to fall deeply. Coal prices rose first and then fell this week. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of port q5500 was about 1200 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. In terms of producing areas, the overall supply of coal mines in the main producing areas is relatively stable this week, except for the shutdown of individual reverse working faces and environmental impact; Due to the tight railway plan and the control of epidemic areas, the shipment is limited, the platform traders purchase less, the coal price of origin is more, and the operation is weak; In addition, affected by the epidemic situation in northern Shanxi, some long-distance customers were transferred to Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) , Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) individual coal mines increased the number of coal trucks, and the price increased slightly. In terms of ports, through multi-party cooperation, Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) single day coal transportation volume recovered to 1.25 million tons on April 19, but the transfer in volume in the first half of the week was low, the impact was difficult to eliminate, and the average weekly transfer in volume still showed a downward trend; Affected by the warming weather, severe epidemic and other factors, the demand for electricity is weak, and it is in the window period of price limit policy implementation in the short term. The wait-and-see mood is strong, the downstream procurement has slowed down, and the transfer out volume continues to decline; On the whole, the transfer in is less than the transfer out, and the inventory in Beigang remains low; In the second half of the week, with the recovery of transfer in volume, the inventory has shown a trend of stabilization and recovery. Downstream, the temperature rose, the epidemic disturbance, and the daily consumption remained low. This week, the weather has gradually warmed up, the epidemic has occurred in many places, some industries in the downstream have shut down and stopped production, and the power demand is relatively weak. Combined with the power of new energy such as Nanfang hydropower, the market demand is weak. The terminal daily consumption in the eight coastal provinces has remained low, and most power plants are dominated by long-term cooperative coal procurement. In terms of import, the price of international thermal coal rose again, the price of overseas coal converted to China remained upside down, and the import volume continued to decline. On the whole, it is difficult for Daqin Railway to maintain full capacity in a short time, and the spring inspection of the railway will officially start in May, which will have an adverse impact on the transfer in of the port; Moreover, the import is still upside down, the subsequent imported coal may still be significantly reduced, and the port will maintain a low inventory state. If the problem of low inventory along the coast cannot be solved, even in the off-season, the coal price will rise again after the periodic decline, maintaining the view that the off-season coal price is difficult to fall smoothly and sharply. In addition, the national development and Reform Commission issued the relevant information on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism, proposing a reasonable range of medium and long-term transaction prices, which will be implemented from May 1, 2022. In the short term, we need to pay attention to policy risks.
Coking coal: wait for the demand to start. This week, with the rise of coke price, the market mentality is getting better, and the transportation in some regions is improving. The downstream is more active in replenishing the warehouse, and the bidding is mainly upward. As of Friday, the Shanxi main coke of Jingtang Port had closed at 3350 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. This week, some coal mines in Xiangning area of Linfen were shut down due to accidents, and the shipment of coal from Shanxi was seriously blocked. The inventory of coal mines continued to accumulate, and the overall output of coal mines fell; Recently, the emergency management department of Shanxi Province recently issued a notice requiring that it is strictly prohibited to organize production beyond capacity, intensity and quota. The production of some mining areas is reduced slightly, and the supply of coking coal market is limited. In terms of importing Mongolian coal, the epidemic situation has gradually eased. Affected by the sentiment of China's coking coal market, traders have high enthusiasm for transportation, and the overall customs clearance volume has increased. According to sxcoal data, customs clearance this week (4.18-4.21) lasted for 4 days, with an average of 280 vehicles per day, an increase of 64 vehicles per day compared with the same period last week. Traders are optimistic and have good expectations for the future market. At present, the mainstream quotation of Mongolian 5 raw coal is 25502600 yuan / ton. On the demand side, with the rise of coke price, the epidemic situation in Shanxi has gradually improved, and most coke enterprises actively replenish the warehouse; However, the overall transportation resistance is still large, the arrival of raw coal from coke enterprises is poor, most of the raw coal in some plants are passively lowered, and the subsequent replenishment demand is strong. In the short term, there is still room for improvement in downstream demand. With the superposition of low inventory of coke steel enterprises and sufficient power for downstream active replenishment, coke coal prices will rise strongly again.
Coke: the supply and demand are separated, and the coke price is stable, medium and strong. This week, the sixth round of increase of coke enterprises was implemented. This round of increase was 200 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of 1200 yuan / ton. On the supply side, with the rise of coke price, the production enthusiasm of coke enterprises has increased, the epidemic situation in Shanxi has gradually improved, the traffic control has been relaxed compared with the early stage, the automobile transportation in the province has gradually recovered, the arrival of raw materials of coke enterprises in the province has improved, and some coke enterprises that limited production due to the shortage of raw materials in the early stage have increased production; The logistics in Shanxi has improved compared with the previous period, and the inventory of coke enterprises began to decline. On the demand side, the arrival of raw materials in some steel plants is poor, resulting in low coke inventory in the plant. Some steel plants have stewing furnace maintenance arrangements for blast furnaces, and the hot metal output of steel plants fluctuates in a narrow range; Due to transportation problems, the arrival of raw materials in some steel mills is poor, resulting in low coke inventory in the plant. In order to ensure production, steel mills have strong enthusiasm for procurement. On the whole, with the easing of the epidemic and the recovery of hot metal production, there is room for coke prices to rise.
Investment strategy. This week, the national development and Reform Commission set the task of reducing crude steel without mentioning the scale of reduction. We believe that even if the output of crude steel is reduced, the tight supply and demand of coking coal this year is difficult to be substantially reversed (especially the main coking coal). At present, the inventory of all links in society is at the highest level in history and still shows the trend of destocking. Stick to the core assets and be optimistic about the valuation repair of high long-term association and high score red coal enterprises. Key recommendations: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) . In addition, the transformation of traditional energy enterprises under the goal of "double carbon" is worth looking forward to. The key recommendations are power investment energy (green power), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage), Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) (new materials and green power), Yankuang energy (new materials and green power), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (hydrogen energy) and China Xuyang group (hydrogen energy). Actively layout the national reform in Shanxi, and focus on recommending Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , with expected asset injection.
Risk tip: China's output release exceeded expectations, the downstream demand was less than expected, and the on grid electricity price was significantly reduced.
