Demand is expected to continue to improve, and the allocation value of undervalued coal stocks is prominent
The port price of thermal coal rose slightly by 3.35% this week, and the closing price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang was 1173 yuan / ton. Supply side: Although the raw coal output in March was released this week and increased by 14.8% year-on-year, the key enterprises only increased slightly year-on-year, and there is still great uncertainty about the real and effective supply; Due to the epidemic situation and the pressure of safe production, the output of some coal mines in Shanxi has decreased and the transportation has been limited to a certain extent; The year-on-year decline of imported coal accelerated in March; Overall, the current supply is judged to be significantly loose. Demand side: at present, it is in the off-season of coal consumption, the heating season has withdrawn, and the impact of the national epidemic has led to the weakness of industrial power consumption, and the daily consumption level is low. Later judgment: in terms of supply, the convening of the 20th CPC National Congress in the second half of the year will bring pressure on environmental protection and safety supervision, production may be subject to certain restrictions, and the supply will still be tight. In terms of demand, with the epidemic situation in all parts of the country under control, the downstream industrial power demand will be restored, and the implementation of the steady growth policy will also increase the demand for thermal coal; Overall, under the background of overseas energy supply shortage and China’s demand recovery, the price of thermal coal still has a strong upward momentum. In terms of coking coal, the supply side is still in a tight state due to production and shipping restrictions, Mongolian coal still fell sharply year-on-year, and Russian coal has increased, but it is only a hedge against the import volume of other countries; Demand side steel and coke operating rates are still high. Later judgment: there is no significant increase in China’s output of coking coal and there is no supply guarantee policy. Although the imported coal from Russia and Mongolia is expected to grow, it is still restricted by the transportation capacity and epidemic situation. On the demand side, with the improvement of the epidemic situation and the force of the steady growth policy, the price of coking coal is expected to rise further. Recently, the performance of many coal enterprises in the first quarter exceeded expectations, and the annualized valuation level of most enterprises was only 4 or 5 times, with a high safety margin; In addition, affected by the epidemic, the current demand is very poor, and the epidemic will eventually be controlled. The government is expected to continue to introduce corresponding policies for steady growth, and the demand is expected to remain good; At present, it will be the best stage to buy expected and allocate coal stocks. Objects benefiting from steady performance and high dividend: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects expected to benefit from growth: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: the port price of power coal rose slightly this week, and the central government emphasized that coal is the main energy structure
This week (April 18-april 22, 2022), the port price of thermal coal increased slightly by 3.35%, and the closing price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang was quoted as 1173 yuan / ton. Supply side: Although the raw coal output in March was released this week and increased by 14.8% year-on-year, the key enterprises only increased slightly year-on-year, and there is still great uncertainty about the real and effective supply; Due to the epidemic situation and the pressure of safe production, the output of some coal mines in Shanxi has decreased and the transportation has been limited to a certain extent; The year-on-year decline of imported coal accelerated in March; Overall, the current supply is judged to be significantly loose. Demand side: at present, it is in the off-season of coal consumption, the heating season has withdrawn, and the impact of the national epidemic has led to the weakness of industrial power consumption, and the daily consumption level is low. In the later stage, under the background of overseas energy supply shortage and China’s demand recovery, the price of thermal coal still has a strong upward momentum. This week, the central government has repeatedly stressed the dominant position of coal as an energy supply. In the long run, the fundamentals of coal are still stable and good.
Coal coke steel industry chain: the demand side of coking coal continued to be strong this week, and the fundamentals of double coke are still strong
Coke: coke price remained stable this week. On the supply side, shipping is still restricted; In terms of demand, the overall inventory of Tangshan steel plant is still tight and the procurement is still active. Coking coal: coking coal prices are stable this week. In terms of supply, the restrictions on output and shipment are still tight, and Mongolian coal still fell sharply year-on-year. Although Russian coal has increased, it is only a hedge against the import volume of other countries; In terms of demand, affected by the downstream coke market, there is a strong demand for coking coal. At present, the inventory of coke plant is still in short, and there is a strong demand for replenishment. Overall, the fundamentals of the current dual focus are still strong, and the epidemic has an impact on the operating rate and shipping status. In the later stage, the epidemic situation improved, the transportation capacity recovered smoothly, the infrastructure construction continued to advance, and the coking coal market is expected to be good throughout the year.
Risk tips: downside risk of economic growth, risk of epidemic impact, risk of accelerated substitution of renewable energy
