Focus:
The bank’s position in the first quarter has rebounded to 22pc1.4% compared with 22pc1.4% in 2024.
2) this week, Zhangjiagang, China Merchants and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) successively released the first quarterly report of 2022. At present, a total of four listed banks have disclosed the first quarterly report, realizing a year-on-year growth rate of + 10.01% / + 13.92% in revenue and net profit attributable to parent company respectively. Among them, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) 2022q1 revenue + 8.54% year-on-year, net profit attributable to parent company + 12.52% year-on-year Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) 2022q1 revenue + 19.34% year on year, net profit attributable to parent company + 23.38% year on year.
Industry and company dynamics
1) LPR quotation in April: the LPR for one year is 3.7%, and the LPR for more than five years is 4.6%. The LPR interest rate has remained unchanged for three consecutive months. 2) On April 18, the central bank and others issued 23 measures to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development; On April 19, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly held a symposium on financial support for the real economy, with intensive supervision and guidance to financial institutions to support the real economy. 3) This week, the China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) board of directors decided to remove Mr. Tian Huiyu from the post of president and director, and Bank of communications redeemed 30 billion yuan of tier 2 capital bonds in full; The annual report and the first quarterly report of listed banks will be intensively disclosed next week.
Data tracking
This week, the A-share bank index fell by 2.95%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.24 percentage points, and the rise and fall of the sector ranked 8 / 30, among which Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) (+ 2.52%), Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) (+ 1.68%) and Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) (+ 0.65%) were the top gainers.
Open market operation: this week, the central bank conducted a total of 50 billion yuan of reverse repo in the open market, and a total of 60 billion yuan of reverse repo expired. Therefore, a total of 10 billion yuan was recovered in the open market of the central bank this week. A reverse repurchase of 50 billion yuan will expire next week.
Shibor: this week, the trend of the inter-bank lending rate of Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) s declined as a whole. The overnight Shibor interest rate dropped 8bp to 1.26%, and the seven-day Shibor interest rate dropped 12bp to 1.70%.
Investment suggestions:
This week, the macro level disclosed that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 4.8%, slightly better than the market expectation, but the epidemic was frequent after March, and the subsequent economic growth pressure increased. Recently, the policy of “combined fist” has been put into force, and the wide credit continues to focus on small and micro enterprises, consumption and people’s livelihood and other structural industries and fields with great impact of the epidemic. In terms of the industry, the proportion of banks with fund positions rebounded in the first quarter, reflecting the defensive attribute of the sector. At present, the dividend rate of the sector is at an all-time high, and the investment cost performance is still high. Individual stocks continue to be recommended: China Merchants, Ningbo, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Ping An, Societe Generale, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) etc.
Risk tips:
1) the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, and the credit cost has increased significantly;
2) major operational risks of individual banks, etc.
