\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) 2022q1 achieved an operating revenue of 33.619 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 8.04% / – 26.29% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.634 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 0.34% / – 8.27% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 1.303 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 2.41% / + 137.01% respectively.
Q1 gross profit margin performed beautifully and the product structure continued to improve: 1) revenue performed better than sales on a month on month basis, and the proportion of sales of high priced models continued to increase. 2022q1 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) achieved a wholesale sales volume of 283500 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 16.32% / – 28.57% respectively, and the revenue was significantly better than the sales volume; The average price of a single car is 118600 yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 29.12% / + 3.20% respectively. In terms of specific product structure, the sales proportion of Q1 tank / Wei brand and other high priced products increased significantly to 9.08% / 5.04%, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.86pct / + 1.59pct respectively. 2) The gross profit margin improved significantly on a month on month basis due to the optimization of product sales structure and less provision for Q1 bonus. Q1 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) gross profit margin was 17.18%, with a month on month increase of + 2.06pct / + 1.88pct respectively, which was mainly due to the optimization of sales structure, and the month on month increase was mainly due to the less provision of Q1 bonus compared with Q4. 3) In terms of expense ratio, Q1 sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio is 3.13% / 3.50% / 3.94% / 0.87% respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of -0.55pct / + 1.37pct / + 1.02pct / + 1.18pct respectively, and a month on month ratio of + 0.31pct / – 0.07pct / + 0.36pct / + 0.97pct respectively. The total expense ratio during the period is 11.42%, with a month on month ratio of + 3.02pct / + 1.57pct respectively. The significant increase in financial expenses on a month on month basis was mainly due to the increase in exchange losses in Q1, and the increase in the rate of sales / management expenses was mainly due to the impact of the accrual of equity incentive expenses. 4) The profitability of single vehicle has improved significantly Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) q1 single vehicle gross profit / single vehicle net profit were 20400 yuan / 5800 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 46.66% / + 19.10% and a month on month increase of + 15.87% / + 28.43% respectively. 5) Non recurring gains and losses in 2022q1 amounted to RMB 331 million, mainly including government subsidies of RMB 801 million, other profit and loss items of RMB 416 million and income tax offset of RMB 107 million.
Electric intelligent technology has a strong product cycle, and it is optimistic that the sales volume will continue to increase in the long term after the chip shortage is alleviated: 1) in the short term, with the alleviation of the chip shortage, the Great Wall’s product matrix with Euler & Tank & WeiPai as the core is further expanded, the launch and delivery speed of new cars such as ballet cat / lightning cat / Yuanmeng / tank 700 is accelerated, the high-end intelligent electric continues to increase, and the sales volume is expected to continue to break through. 2) In the long run, great wall takes the self-development of the whole stack of technology + product segmentation definition + continuous marketing innovation as its core competitiveness; The seven brands are all-round upward, focusing on leading breakthroughs in different markets and maintaining long-term competitiveness.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the repeated epidemic situation in China and the continuous impact of chip shortage, we lowered the net profit attributable to the parent company from Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) 2022 to 2024 to 83 / 135 / 18.2 billion yuan (previously expected to be 91 / 147 / 20 billion yuan), the corresponding EPS were 0.90/1.47/1.97 yuan and the corresponding PE was 27 / 17 / 12 times. Maintain the “buy” rating of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) .
Risk tip: chip shortage recovery is lower than expected; The epidemic control was lower than expected.
