\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 276 Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the report of the first quarter of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 25.906 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.59%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.41%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 4.201 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.53%. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 5.479 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.93%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.237 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.35%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 1.180 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.80%.
The increase of R & D investment, the centralized purchase of generic drugs, the price reduction of medical insurance negotiation and other factors suppressed the performance. The decline of the company’s performance in 2021 is mainly caused by the following factors:
(1) increased R & D Investment: in 2021, the company’s cumulative R & D investment reached 6.203 billion yuan, an increase of 1.214 billion yuan over 2020, a year-on-year increase of 24.34%.
(2) impact of centralized purchase of generic drugs: for the six drugs involved in the third batch of centralized purchase, which began in November 2020, the sales revenue in 2020 was 1.9 billion yuan, down 55% during the reporting period; For the eight drugs involved in the fifth batch of centralized purchase, which began in September 2021, the sales revenue in 2020 was 4.4 billion yuan, down 37% during the reporting period. Considering that most of the company’s large varieties of generic drugs have been intensively purchased, it is expected that the suppression of centralized purchase on the company’s performance will gradually weaken in the future.
(3) price reduction in medical insurance Negotiation: the price of the main product carrelizumab will drop by 85% after medical insurance negotiation in 2020.
The innovative drug cluster has gradually entered the harvest period, with 10 innovative drugs on the market, 4 innovative drugs in NDA stage and 15 innovative drugs in phase 3 clinical stage.
(1) innovative drugs already on the market: at present, 10 innovative drugs including irecoxib, apatinib mesylate, tiopeferistine, pyrrolidinib maleate, carrelizumab, remazolam toluenesulfonate, fluzopari, hetropapa ethanolamine, darcilil hydroxyethanesulfonate and proline hengglijing have been approved for listing in China, among which Darcy hydroxyethanesulfonate, a CDK4 / 6 inhibitor, will be approved for listing by the end of 2021, It is expected to become a new heavy variety.
(2) innovative drugs in NDA stage: at present, repagliptin phosphate, AR inhibitor shr3680, CYP51 enzyme inhibitor shr8008 and PD-L1 monoclonal antibody shr-1316 are expected to be approved for listing in 2022.
(3) 3 phase of innovative drugs: the company’s innovative products have covered cancer drugs, surgical anesthetic drugs, diabetes drugs, autoimmune drugs, cardiovascular drugs, ophthalmic drugs and other fields, and many drugs have entered the 3 phase of clinical trials. Some of them are expected to be submitted to DNA in 2022. Tumor areas include PD-L1 monoclonal antibody shr-1316 and PD-L1 / TGF- β Double anti shr-1701, AR inhibitor shr3680, multi-target TKI, famitinib malate; There is a repaglinide phosphate in the field of diabetes. In the field of rheumatic immunity, there are IL-17A monoclonal antibody shr-1314, URAT1 inhibitor shr4640 and Jak1 inhibitor shr0302; In cardiovascular field, PCSK9 monoclonal antibody shr-1209; In the field of anti infection, CYP51 inhibitor shr8008; In the field of pain management, there are mor inhibitor shr8554 and Kor inhibitor shr0410; The ophthalmic fields include shr8058 and shr8028; There is GnRH receptor antagonist shr7280 in the field of gynecology.
The construction of R & D platform is expected to enrich the innovation pipeline, the clinical development team is expected to accelerate the development of new drugs, and the international development is expected to open the growth dilemma.
(1) R & D platform: at present, the company has built a number of technical platforms, such as proteolytic targeting chimera (protac), molecular glue, antibody drug conjugate (ADC), double / multispecific antibody, gene therapy, mRNA, bioinformatics, translational medicine and other platforms, which are expected to further enrich the company’s product pipeline in the future.
(2) clinical development: clinical cooperative research centers are all over the country, and clinical resources cover 400 clinical trial institutions and more than 1500 professional departments in China. On average, nearly 200 research centers were launched every month, more than 700 patients were newly enrolled, and more than 10000 subjects were managed in real time.
(3) International Development: the company has strengthened the construction of overseas teams. At present, the company has more than 170 overseas R & D teams. During the reporting period, the company has carried out nearly 20 international clinical trials, including 7 International multi center phase 3 projects, and more than 10 studies are in the preparation stage.
Investment suggestion: we expect the revenue growth rate of the company from 2022 to 2024 to be 6.56%, 14.57% and 14.29% respectively, the net profit growth rate to be 9.14%, 15.82% and 15.48% respectively, the corresponding EPS to be 0.78 yuan, 0.90 yuan and 1.04 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE to be 42.6 times, 36.8 times and 31.8 times respectively; Maintain the investment rating of overweight-a.
Risk tip: the risk that the progress of clinical trials of innovative drugs is less than expected, the risk of clinical trial failure, the risk of changes in pharmaceutical policies, and the risk that product sales are less than expected.
