\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 50 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) )
Key investment points
The company’s performance increased significantly in 2021, which was above the median value of the forecast: the company’s revenue in 2021 was 130356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 159.06%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.931 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 185.34%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 13.442 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 215.20%, which was higher than the median value of the previous performance forecast. The gross profit margin was 26.28%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.48pct; The net interest rate was 13.70%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.57pct. In 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 56.994 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 203.21%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.180 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 267.41% and a month on month increase of 150.38%. The gross profit margin was 24.70%, down 3.66 PCT year-on-year and 3.20 PCT month on month; The net interest rate was 15.29%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.41 PCT and a month on month increase of 2.25 PCT.
Benefiting from the layout of upstream lithium battery materials and the increase of the proportion of overseas revenue, the overall gross profit margin of the company has strong pressure resistance: the company’s revenue is mainly composed of power battery system, energy storage system and lithium battery materials. In 2021, the company’s power battery system revenue was 91.491 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 132.06%, accounting for about 70.19% of the revenue, a year-on-year decrease of 8.16 PCT. The company’s sales volume of power battery system in 2021 was 116.75gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 162.56%. It is estimated that the unit price of power battery system is about 0.78 yuan / wh, a year-on-year decrease of 12.36%. In 2021, when the price of upstream materials of the battery rises, the price rise of the battery lags behind its raw materials, so the gross profit margin decreases by 4.56pct year-on-year to 22.00%. The revenue of energy storage system was 13.624 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 601.01%. The proportion of revenue increased from 3.86% in 2020 to 10.45% in 2021, and the sales volume was 16.66gwh. It is estimated that the unit price of the energy storage system is 0.82 yuan / wh, which is flat year-on-year. Also affected by the rise in the price of raw materials, the gross profit margin decreased by 7.51pct year-on-year to 28.52%. In addition to the power and energy storage system, the company laid out upstream lithium battery materials. In 2021, the revenue was 15.457 billion yuan, an increase of 350.74% year-on-year, and the proportion of revenue increased by 5.05 PCT to 11.86%. Due to the price rise of lithium battery upstream materials, the gross profit margin of this segment increased by 4.67pct year-on-year to 25.12%. Therefore, from a comprehensive point of view, the company benefited from the layout of upstream materials, alleviated the decline in the gross profit margin of the company’s overall business, and had strong pressure resistance. By region, the proportion of overseas revenue of the company in 2021 increased by 5.67pct to 21.38%. Since the gross profit margin of overseas business is about 5pct higher than that of domestic business, the change of regional structure of revenue has also improved the profitability of the company.
The company’s expense rate was well controlled, and the net interest rate increased slightly year-on-year: the company’s sales expense rate in 2021 was 3.35%, down 1.06pct year-on-year; The rate of administrative expenses was 2.58%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.93pct; The ratio of sales, management, R & D and financial expenses totaled 11.34%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.25 PCT. The company’s good cost control ability is the key reason why the net profit margin can rise slightly compared with the same period when its gross profit margin decreases slightly.
The inventory reserve at the end of 2021 helped alleviate the cost pressure of raw material price rise in 2022q1: the company’s battery system inventory at the end of 2021 was 40.19gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 183.63%, and the lithium battery material inventory was 60900 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 680.77%. The company’s inventory reserve can alleviate the cost pressure caused by the continuous price rise of raw materials in 2022q1 to a certain extent.
The company is in a leading position in the industry and will develop energy storage and power battery system together in the future: according to sneresearch statistics, the global market share of power battery installed capacity of the company in 2021 was 32.6%, ranking first in the world for five consecutive years. According to the data of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery innovation alliance, the company accounts for about 50% of the market in China, with a significant leading position. In addition, according to xinlune information data, the company’s energy storage battery output ranked first in the global market share in 2021. In the future, energy storage business and power battery business will jointly drive the development of the company. In terms of technology, the company developed the first generation of sodium ion batteries to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium resources; AB battery pack system breaks through the performance limitations of single material; The third generation CTP technology improves the performance indexes such as energy density of battery system; Non thermal diffusion technology to improve battery safety. The company’s technology is also in a leading position in the industry.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 27.322 billion yuan, 39.874 billion yuan and 52.268 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 71.5%, 45.9% and 31.1%. The current share price corresponds to 35, 24 and 19 times the PE value from 2022 to 2024 respectively, maintaining the investment rating of “overweight-a”.
Risk warning: the global demand for new energy vehicles is less than expected; Product expansion is less than expected; Industry competition and other factors.
