\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Event overview
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022: in 2022q1, the company’s revenue was 33.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.0% and a month on month decrease of – 26.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.3% and a month on month increase of – 8.3%; The net profit attributable to non parent company was 13.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year ratio of – 0.4%.
Analysis and judgment:
Lack of core caused a slight decline in revenue, and ASP rose steadily
Affected by the lack of core, the production and sales of the company’s total revenue fell month on month. In 2022q1, the company’s revenue was – 26.3% month on month, with a decline less than that at the sales end. Due to the tight supply of Bosch ESP chips and the impact of the epidemic, the company’s 2022q1 auto wholesale sales totaled 284000, a month on month increase of – 28.6%. Major brands are under pressure: Haval, wey, pickup truck, Euler and tank 2022q1 sales were 167000, 14000, 43000, 34000 and 26000 respectively, with a month on month ratio of – 26.3%, – 35.7%, – 35.2%, – 32.9% and – 19.6% respectively. The company actively coordinates chip supply. We expect that under the gradual control of the epidemic, production and sales are expected to gradually rise from May.
The high-end brand has achieved remarkable results, and ASP continues to rise. The company’s brand high-end layout has achieved remarkable results. 2022q1asp has reached 119000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27000 yuan and a month on month increase of + 4000 yuan. We believe that the sales volume of tank brand 2022q1 accounted for 9.1%, up + 4.9pct year-on-year and + 1.0pct month on month, mainly due to the pull of high-end models such as tanks and the decline in the proportion of low-cost Euler models. In addition, the tank 500 was launched in March, with a higher price than the tank 300; In terms of Euler, high-value products such as ballet cat, lightning cat and punk cat will also be listed this year, and the structural improvement continues. We judge that the company’s ASP is expected to continue to rise.
Profit bucking the trend to improve elasticity and accelerate the release
The gross profit margin rose against the trend and the expense rate was properly controlled. In 2022q1, the company deducted non net profit of 1.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 2.4% and a month on month increase of + 137.0%. The gross profit margin increased rapidly. In 2022q1, the gross profit margin increased to 17.2%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.1pct and a month on month increase of + 1.9pct. The expense rate remains stable: the sales / management / Finance / R & D expense rates of 2022q1 company are 3.1% / 3.5% / 0.9% / 3.9% respectively, and the overall expense rate is properly controlled. We expect that with the improvement of production and sales and structure, the gross profit margin is expected to increase steadily. In terms of expenses, it is expected that in the second half of the year, with the exercise of the equity incentive plan in 2021, the impact of equity incentive amortization on the expense side is expected to gradually weaken.
The proportion of high profit models increased, and the profit was released quickly. In 2022q1, the net profit of single vehicle reached 6000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0900 yuan and a month on month increase of + 13000 yuan. Multiple adverse factors have an impact on the performance of 2022q1: according to our calculation, due to the month on month decline of production and sales, the labor, depreciation and amortization of single vehicle are about 3000 yuan, while the bulk rise, the decline of subsidies and exchange gains and losses are dragged down. The company’s single car profit increased against the trend. We judged that the profit of high-end models such as tanks was significantly higher than that of other models, which hedged the negative impact. The margin of production and marketing is improved, and the profit elasticity is expected to accelerate the release. At present, the company has more orders on hand, the demand for tank 300 and tank 500 is strong, and the production and sales are expected to increase rapidly under the improvement of supply. The delivery of high profit models is expected to drive the company’s profit release and drive into the fast lane: the net profit of single vehicle of 2022q1 company is 6000 yuan, plus 3000 yuan of negative feedback loss of scale. Superimposed with the pull of high profit models, we expect that the profit of single vehicle in the second half of the year is expected to exceed 10000 yuan. In addition, in view of the rise in battery costs, Euler good cat and wey also started to raise prices in March and April respectively, with a cumulative increase of about 500019000 yuan. It is expected to further boost profits in the future.
Investment advice
The promotion of the company’s new products outside China is progressing smoothly, a new cycle of intelligent electrification has been opened, the proportion of new energy intelligent models has increased rapidly, the leading position of luxury has become clearer, and the non vehicle business income is expected to accelerate the release. We are optimistic about the company’s simultaneous increase in volume and price this year and maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 1920.5/2567.4/330.99 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 10.6/156.2/20.02 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 1.09/1.69/2.17 yuan, the corresponding closing price on April 22, 2022 will be 24.36 yuan / share, and the PE will be 22 / 14 / 11 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The impact of lack of core is higher than expected; Downside risk of auto market; The market competition of wey, salon, haver and other brands intensifies, and the sales volume is lower than expected; The progress of going to sea was less than expected.
