\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 128 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) )
Performance overview
Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) 2022q1: net profit attributable to parent company + 23.4% year on year, growth rate + 2pc month on month, revenue + 19.3% year on year, growth rate + 3.0pc month on month; ROE13. 05%, yoy + 1.4pc, ROA1 10%, year-on-year + 3bp; The non-performing rate was 0.81%, unchanged month on month, and the provision coverage rate was 533%, month on month + 1pc.
Double increase in revenue and profit
22q1 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) net profit attributable to parent company was + 23.4% year-on-year, growth rate was + 2pc, revenue was + 19.3% year-on-year, growth rate was + 3.0pc month on month, mainly due to the increase of interest income growth. From the perspective of driving factors: ① scale, 22q1 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) assets + 17.1% year-on-year, maintaining a high growth rate, of which 22q1 loan growth rate + 0.5pc to 24.1% month on month. It is expected that the growth rate of follow-up loans may slow down slightly due to the impact of the epidemic for a short time; ② Interest margin, 22q1 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) net interest margin (daily average) increased by 3bp to 3.09% compared with 2021. From the drag factors: ① non interest, 22q1 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) non interest growth rate was – 4.2% year-on-year, mainly due to the small increase in medium income year-on-year Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) is located in an economically developed region with a high level of residents’ income. It is expected that there is still room for improvement in the growth of medium income. ② Provision, 22q1 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) asset impairment loss + 30% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 21a + 14pc, dragging down profit growth.
The interest rate spread fell month on month
22q1 net interest margin (daily average) increased by 3bp to 3.09% compared with 2021, which is at a high level of listed banks. Mainly benefited from the company’s continued small and scattered business and increased the investment of Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprises and personal operating loans. 22q1 personal operating loans increased by + 34% year-on-year, higher than the overall loan growth rate. Pratt Whitney small and micro enterprises are small and scattered, banks have strong bargaining power, and the loan pricing level is relatively high. At the same time, affected by factors such as interest rate reduction and epidemic situation, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) net interest margin has downward pressure. The net interest margin of 22q1 in a single quarter (at the end of the beginning of the period) is 2.86% higher than that of 21q4, mainly because the downward speed of return on assets (at the end of the beginning of the period – 13bp) is faster than the cost of liabilities (at the end of the period – 2bp). It is speculated that it is mainly affected by the public interest of loan delivery and the downward impact of loan pricing.
Stable asset quality
① in terms of non-performing, the non-performing rate of 22q1 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) was 0.81%, unchanged month on month; The concern rate was + 6BP to 0.94% month on month, still at an excellent level, and the asset quality fluctuated slightly. It is speculated that the pressure on the generation of non-performing loans of Pratt Whitney small and micro enterprises increased due to the impact of the economic downturn and the epidemic situation. ② In terms of provision, 22q1 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) coverage increased to 533% month on month (MOM) + 1PC, maintaining the best level since listing. Looking forward to the future, sufficient provisions lay the foundation for performance release.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the net profit attributable to Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) parent company will increase by 20.8% / 17.9% / 18.0% year-on-year, corresponding to bps8 04 / 8.89/9.89 yuan. Maintain the target price of 9.50 yuan, corresponding to 1.18 times Pb in 2022. The current price corresponds to PB1 in 202201 times, 16% of the current price space.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and sharp outbreak of adverse.
