\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 036 China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) )
Data overview
In 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 12.5% year-on-year, the growth rate was – 10.7pc month on month, the revenue was + 8.5% year on year, and the growth rate was – 5.5pc month on month; ROE19. 2%； ROA1. 54%, year-on-year + 4bp; The non-performing rate was 0.94%, and the provision coverage rate was 463%.
Main points
1. The growth of revenue slowed down. The growth rate of net profit in 2022q1 decreased by 10.7pc to 12.5% month on month compared with 2021a, and the growth rate of revenue decreased by 5.5pc to 8.5% month on month. The performance was basically in line with expectations. The decline of profit growth was mainly dragged down by scale, medium income and impairment. Specifically: (1) scale: the total assets in 2022q1 increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 2.0pc month on month. It is speculated that it is due to the weakening financing demand of the real economy. With the subsequent economic recovery, the demand for real financing, especially retail financing, is expected to drive the upward growth of assets. (2) Intermediate income: the growth rate of intermediate income in 2022q1 was 5.5% month on month (MOM) compared with 2021a-13.3pc. Due to the fluctuation of capital market, the intermediate income of wealth was – 11.1% year-on-year. (3) Impairment: the impairment loss in 2022q1 was + 4.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was + 2.8pc month on month, which was attributed to the active increase of impairment provision and the elimination of the superimposed high base effect. Looking forward to the future, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) profit is expected to maintain rapid growth, mainly considering the sufficient provision level.
2. AUM has outstanding toughness. The capital market fluctuated in 2022q1, and the wealth business was impacted by the industry. However, the retail AUM of China Merchants Bank in 2022q1 was still + 18% year-on-year, indicating that China Merchants Bank has outstanding advantages in wealth management ability, especially in customer operation ability. ① In terms of customer group structure, the long tail customer group grew rapidly, with AUM below sunflower + 8% month on month, 3pc faster than the overall AUM. ② In terms of product structure, China Merchants Bank has made efforts to develop low-risk products such as time deposits and financial management. 22q1 personal time deposits + 16% month on month; Revenue from asset management + 48% year-on-year.
3. The interest rate spread rebounded month on month. 2022q1 single quarter interest margin (daily average) increased by + 3bp to 2.51% month on month, attributable to debt
This improved pull. (1) Asset side: the return on assets was flat at 3.97% month on month. ① Structurally, loans increased by + 3.4% month on month, 1.6pc faster than total assets, and the proportion of loans increased. ② In terms of interest rate, Q1 market interest rate went down, driving the chain comparison of financial investment interest rate – 5bp; The loan interest rate was + 4bp month on month, and it is speculated that the one-time impact caused by 21q4 asset securitization has subsided. (2) Debt side: the debt cost ratio rose -2bp to 1.58% month on month, due to the rise in the proportion of deposits and the decline in the interest rate of active liabilities. ① Structurally, deposits increased by + 5.2% month on month, 3.7pc faster than total liabilities; ② In terms of interest rate, the interest rates of inter-bank liabilities (including central bank loans) and bonds were – 10bp and – 8bp respectively month on month. Looking forward to the future, affected by the LPR interest rate cut, it is expected that the interest rate spread will still face downward pressure.
4. Adverse margin upward. The non-performing rate of 2022q1 was + 3bp month on month, mainly due to real estate and credit card risk exposure.
(1) real estate: at the end of 2022q1, the non-performing rate of public real estate increased from + 118bp to 2.57% month on month, due to the continuous exposure of risks in the real estate industry and the initiative to tighten the recognition of non-performing loans of public real estate in 2022q1. With the exception of real estate, other public bad debts decreased. (2) Retail: affected by the epidemic situation and stricter identification standards, the non-performing rate of credit card in 2022q1 was + 7bp month on month. The month on month ratio of mortgage concern rate is + 19bp. It is speculated that it is related to strengthening the recognition standard of mortgage concern, which belongs to short-term disturbance. (3) At the end of 2022q1, the provision rate is 463%. Looking forward to the future, we still need to pay attention to the adverse impact of the downturn of the real estate industry and the impact of the epidemic.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 15.13% / 15.31% / 15.38% year-on-year, corresponding to bps32 85 / 37.31/42.47 yuan shares. The current price corresponds to 1.29/1.14/1.00 times of Pb valuation. Maintain the target price of 62.50 yuan / share, corresponding to pb1.5 yuan in 202290x, the current price corresponds to PB1 in 202229x, 47% of the current price space.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and substantial exposure of adverse.
