\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 116 Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) )
Event: Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) disclosed the 2021 annual report, and the performance met expectations. In 2021, the revenue was 1.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 179.68%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 296 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 175.88%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 262 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 243.30%; Operating net cash flow was 29 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 55.16%, and the net cash ratio was 0.1; Weighted roe16 28%, year-on-year + 9.65pct. In a single quarter, the revenue of 2021q4 was 408 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 161% / + 5% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 92 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 202.6% / + 10.7% respectively; Deduct 86 million yuan of net profit not attributable to parent company, with a yoy / mom ratio of + 319.2% / + 19.3% respectively.
The significant increase in performance in 2021 was mainly due to the increase in sales and price of carbon nanotube conductive slurry, and the significant increase in net profit per ton.
(1) volume: in 2021, the production / sales volume of conductive slurry was 34 / 33200 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 132.28% / + 124.95%. The new capacity was steadily promoted, and it is expected to be intensively put into operation in 2023. The sharp rise in sales is mainly due to: 1) the high prosperity of new energy vehicles; 2) The demand for high-quality batteries has increased, the cost reduction and price reduction of carbon nanotube powder have become prominent, and the promotion of downstream technology has accelerated the improvement of permeability; 3) The company carried out the sales strategy of focusing on key customers and developing high-quality second-line customers. Relying on its own product strength and moderate profit transfer, the market share was significantly increased to 43.4%. 2021q4 filled the profit transfer space from the scale effect, and the net profit per ton of conductive slurry rose again to 8196 yuan / ton.
(2) price: in 2021, the average selling price of conductive slurry was 39500 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 24.78%. The price rise was mainly due to the rise in the price of main material NMP. Benefiting from the optimization of product structure and scale effect, the annual average gross profit was 13400 yuan / ton, year-on-year + 9%, and the average net profit was 791107 yuan / ton, year-on-year + 52.61%.
In 2021, the net operating cash flow was – 55.16% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in accounts receivable, the shortage of upstream raw material procurement and the shortening of supplier accounting period, but the overall operation efficiency was greatly improved (1) accounts receivable: the total accounts receivable in 2021 was 489 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 212 million yuan, of which accounts receivable within one year accounted for 99.08%, the recovery rate of accounts receivable within one year in 2020 was 99.8%, and the company’s customers were mainstream high-quality battery manufacturers, The risk of bad debts is low. At the same time, the company has continuously strengthened the management of accounts receivable, and the turnover days of credit sales have been shortened to 106 days by 2021. (2) Supplier accounting period: Although the turnover days of accounts payable in 2021 were shortened by 24 to 40 days year-on-year, the turnover days of inventory and accounts receivable were significantly shortened, the overall cash cycle was significantly shortened by 78 to 112 days year-on-year, and the total asset turnover rate increased to 0.59 (the previous value was 0.26).
The addition cost of single gwhcnt conductive agent has been 12.4% lower than that of carbon black conductive agent, with outstanding cost performance. In addition, the promotion of downstream technology has accelerated the improvement of permeability. In 2021, the company reduced the selling price of carbon tubes to 250000 yuan / ton by optimizing the process and scale advantages. At present, the selling price of carbon black is 107500 yuan / ton (including tax). Taking LFP as an example, according to our calculation, the addition cost of CNT is 5.7875 million yuan / GWH, the addition cost of carbon black is 6.677 million yuan / GWH, the cost of CNT conductive agent is 12.4% lower than that of carbon black, and the cost performance is prominent. The high nickel content of power batteries and the increased use of silicon carbon, coupled with the accelerated promotion and application of fast charging technology in the market, the permeability of CNT conductive agent is expected to accelerate. According to GGII, by 2025, carbon nanotube conductive paste will account for 61% in the field of power batteries.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 6.0/10.7/1.71 billion, corresponding to the current price of pe4.3 billion 5 / 24.4 / 15.2 times. Considering the rapid development of the industry, accelerated production capacity and gradual introduction of new products, the company, as a leader, has prominent advantages in scale, products, customers and growth, and continues to give a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation risk; The demand is less than expected; The production capacity falls short of expectations; Bad debt risk.
