\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 786 Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) )
The company released the annual report of 2021 and the quarterly report of 2022: the company’s revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 2.81 billion / 390 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.7% / – 24.4% respectively. 4q21 / 1q22 company’s revenue was 760 million / 740 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 18.3% / – 2.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 120 million / 90 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 39.8% / – 24.7%.
1. Revenue side. The sales volume of Volkswagen Group, the key customer of 4q21 / 1q22, is expected to be – 21% / – 22% year-on-year, and the company’s revenue is under pressure simultaneously. In terms of product splitting, the 2021 / 1q22 lighting and control system achieved a revenue of 1.38 billion / 370 million, with a year-on-year revenue of – 5% / – 5% respectively; Motor control system achieved revenue of 600 million / 160 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 11% / – 3% respectively; The revenue of on-board electrical appliances and electronics reached 530 million / 150 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 19% / + 18% respectively. Among them, the sales of new energy vehicle products in 2021 was 160 million, a year-on-year increase of + 136%. 2. Profit side. 1) Gross profit margin. The gross profit margin of 2021 / 1q22 was 34.6% / 33.4%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.8pct / – 2.2pct. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s three major businesses of lighting and control system / motor control system / on-board electrical appliances and electronics was 33.1% / 35.0% / 35.6% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -3.7pct / + 2.5pct / – 3.3pct. It is expected that the increase in the cost of raw materials such as electronic components is the main reason for the pressure on the gross profit margin; 2) Cost rate. In 2021 / 1q22, the company’s three fee expense rate (excluding R & D) was 8.4% / 6.5%, year-on-year + 1.0pct / – 1.1pct, R & D expense rate was 10.8% / 11.3% respectively, year-on-year + 2.6pct / + 2.9pct respectively, and the company maintained high-intensity R & D expenditure; 3) Profit margin. The net interest rate of 2021 / 1q22 was 15.2% / 13.9%, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.5pct / – 3.3pct respectively. The decline of the company’s net profit margin was mainly affected by the decline of gross profit margin and the increase of R & D intensity.
New projects & new products are sufficient, and equity incentive promotes the release of potential. 1) There are plenty of new projects. In 2021, the company obtained 59 new fixed-point projects from customers, and it is expected to add nearly 55 mass production projects in 2022; 2) The development of new products is good. In 2021, the company’s chassis controller project made a breakthrough, extending from DCC products to ASC and other products, and successively won the fixed-point projects of Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely, Xiaopeng and a new power head main engine factory in China. The promotion and application of intelligent actuator (AGS) and USB projects in Jaguar Land Rover, Suzuki, GAC Toyota, FAW Hongqi, Anhui Volkswagen and other customers, especially the fixed-point products of GAC Toyota, has laid a good foundation for the company to enter Toyota’s global platform in the next step. In 2021, the company sold 420 million new products, a year-on-year increase of + 36.5%; 3) Equity incentive promotes the release of potential. The company issued an equity incentive plan on April 12, which plans to grant 4 million shares to 463 backbones, including the president’s assistant (the grant price is 24.6 yuan / share). The unlocking requirements are that the revenue growth in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 is not less than 15% / 32% / 52% and the profit growth is not less than 10% / 21% / 33% compared with that in 2021.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 3.24 billion yuan, 3.82 billion yuan and 4.64 billion yuan in 2022, 2023 and 2024, corresponding to net profit attributable to the parent company of 460 million yuan, 610 million yuan and 750 million yuan. Based on today’s closing price, PE is 36.7 times, 27.9 times and 22.6 times, maintaining the “buy in” rating.
Risk tips: the progress of product development iteration and mass production is less than expected, the mitigation degree of chip shortage is less than expected, the rise of raw material cost is more than expected, and the recovery of automobile market demand is less than expected
