\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 56 Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) )
Performance review
4.22 the company announced that the revenue of 21 years was 1.090 billion yuan, an increase of 8.13% at the same time, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 133 million yuan, a decrease of 18.72% at the same time. The net profit lower than the income was mainly due to the decrease of gross profit margin and no longer enjoying the epidemic cost reduction policy. The net interest rate of 21 years is 12.18% (-4.02pct). It is proposed to distribute 3 yuan (including tax) for 10 shares and transfer 5 shares. 1q21 ~ 4q21 revenue decreased by 14.15% / decreased by 6.15% / increased by 21.53% / increased by 40.53%, net profit increased by 1.86% / decreased by 17.11% / increased by 0.48% / decreased by 52.8%. New production capacity put into operation + overseas order recovery + China’s accelerated expansion, 2h21 revenue grew beautifully (Q4 growth accelerated), while the cost pressure remains to be transmitted, Q4 net profit performance is lower than expected, and the net interest rate is 6.08% (- 12.04pct).
Business analysis
The revenue of products, active ingredients and their raw materials in 21 years was 730 million yuan, with a same increase of 12.2% (volume increased by 11% and price increased by 1%), of which H1 decreased by 16.1% and H2 increased by 53.1%; Synthetic flavor was 320million yuan, with a same increase of 1.8% (volume increased by 55% and price decreased by 12%), of which H1 decreased by 0.4% and H2 increased by 4.3%.
By region, domestic sales accounted for 18% and revenue increased by 59.5%, of which H1 increased by 44.41% and H2 increased by 74.1%; Export sales increased by 1.06% simultaneously, of which H1 decreased by 17% and H2 increased by 25.3%.
Under cost pressure, the net interest rate has continued to decline year-on-year since Q2. The gross profit margin has continued to decline year-on-year since Q2, mainly due to the sharp rise in the prices of raw materials and shipping + the climbing utilization rate of new capacity; The expense rate Q2 Q3 continued to decline year-on-year, and Q4 increased year-on-year due to the low base of the previous year, but still increased month on month.
Continuous expansion of capacity: 21 years of active ingredients and raw materials production capacity increased by 53 million tons, flavor and flavor production capacity increased by 24 million tons, 22H1 new sunscreen agent PA is expected to put into operation, 61 million 600 thousand yuan I PO raise fund usage changed to 1: “annual output 500 tons of sun protection (PS) product expansion” plan to start in May, December completion and commissioning; 2) The R & D project of Kos personal care products is planned to start in March and is expected to be completed in December.
Continuously develop new products / processes. 1) Sunscreen: the development of new sunscreen PA has been completed and the industrial construction has been started, and the development of physical sunscreen nt-15tv has been completed; 2) Spices: get through the process route of M and its derivatives (some links are being optimized); 3) Gehu: develop thickener and amino acid surfactant.
Investment advice
The sunscreen leader actively expanded new production capacity / processes / products, and the climbing of new production capacity dragged down the net profit performance. The profit forecast for 22-23 years was lowered by 9% and 9%, and the profit forecast for 24 years was increased. The EPS for 22-24 years was 1.79/2.18/2.48 yuan respectively, corresponding to 24 times of pe24 in 22 years, which was lowered to the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
The cost rise is transmitted to the downstream / new production capacity is put into operation / new product expansion is less than expected, etc.
