\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 786 Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) )
The performance was slightly lower than expected. In 2021, the annual revenue was 2.807 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 389 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.4%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 339 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.7%; In the fourth quarter, the revenue was 762 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% and a month on month increase of 29.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 117 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.8% and a month on month increase of 180.5%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 99 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.6% and a month on month increase of 226.8%. On the one hand, it is expected that due to the impact of the epidemic and chip shortage, China’s sales decreased, resulting in a year-on-year decline in revenue; On the other hand, the rise in the price of raw materials, the depreciation of the euro and the investment in new product research and development led to the increase in costs. In 2021, the company plans to pay a dividend of 0.5 yuan per share to shareholders.
The gross profit margin is under pressure in the short term, and the expense rate increases more due to R & D investment and exchange rate changes. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the gross profit margin was 33.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3 percentage points and a month on month increase of 0.9 percentage points; The annual gross profit margin was 34.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points. The decline in gross profit margin is expected to be mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials. During the whole year of 2021, the expense rate increased by 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, including the administrative expense rate increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year and the R & D expense rate increased by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of pre research projects and new designated projects, resulting in the increase of R & D investment; The financial expense rate increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of exchange rate changes. The net cash flow from operating activities in 2021 was 421 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.2%, mainly due to the increase of cash flow paid to employees.
Continuous optimization of customer structure. In 2021, the company’s three main businesses, lighting control system, motor control system and on-board electrical and electronic business, achieved a revenue of 1.38 billion yuan / 605 million yuan / 525 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 4.6% / + 10.8% / – 19.1%. The company continued to optimize the customer structure and gradually penetrated into the field of new energy. In 2021, the light control projects of Ford, Renault, BMW and other customers began mass production, and have entered the new energy supporting system of Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely, great wall, Chang’an, Hongqi, Weilai, Xiaopeng and other customers. The sales proportion of customers outside Volkswagen increased from 25.7% to 30.3%. With the continuous expansion of the company’s customers, the company’s customer sales structure and market layout are expected to be further improved.
The new product sales and fixed-point promotion are smooth, laying a foundation for the company’s business growth. In 2021, major new products such as AGS, USB, cockpit intelligent light source and national VI emission system of commercial vehicles gradually entered the stage of mass production and sales, and the sales volume of chassis controller project gradually increased. In 2021, the total sales of new products was 415 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.5%, accounting for about 14.8%. In terms of fixed-point of new products, the company’s strategic product chassis controller project has made a breakthrough. On the basis of the original chassis controller DCC, it has successfully developed ASC (air suspension controller) and other new products related to chassis domain control technology, and won the fixed-point projects of Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely, Xiaopeng, a new force of the head and other customers; AGS, USB and other major new products are promoted and applied in Jaguar Land Rover, GAC Toyota, FAW Hongqi, Suzuki and other customers. The continuous mass production of new products will lay a solid foundation for the company’s future business growth.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
After adjusting the income and gross profit margin, it is predicted that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.33 yuan, 1.71 yuan and 2.17 yuan respectively (1.77 yuan and 2.24 yuan in the original 22-23 years). The comparable company is a company related to the automotive electronics and intelligent automobile industry chain. The average PE valuation of the comparable company in 22 years is 38 times, and the company is given an estimated value of 38 times in 22 years. The corresponding target price is 50.54 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The supporting volume of lighting control business is lower than expected, the motor control business is lower than expected, the on-board electrical and electronic business is lower than expected, and the shortage of automobile chips continues.
