\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 169 Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) )
Core view
Revenue maintained strong growth and the decline in net interest rate narrowed continuously. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 5.837 billion / + 28.84%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.402 billion / + 2.41%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.190 billion / - 1.47%. Q4 revenue 2.010 billion / + 29.62%, net profit attributable to parent 386 million / - 17.80%, net profit not attributable to parent 297 million / - 21.01%. Q1 revenue is 1.36 billion / + 22.30%, net profit attributable to parent company is 343 million / + 8.76%, net profit not attributable to parent company is 301 million / + 7.06%. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 21 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. The company's Q4 and Q1 revenue growth rate remained above 20%, and the growth was still strong; The decline in Q4 and Q1 net interest rates narrowed quarter on quarter for two consecutive quarters, and profitability has shown signs of improvement.
New products drive the rapid growth of China's revenue and the rapid promotion of overseas global distribution network. 1) domestic sales, the company actively changes in marketing, increase its own brand publicity tiktok, B station and other new marketing channels, and strengthen cooperation with the electronic business platform. With the launch of self-cleaning floor cleaning Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) G10 in 2021q4, the company's market share in China has increased greatly. From October to December, the listing share of the company's floor cleaning Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) line has increased by 8.5/5.2/8.1pct to 19.2% / 16.6% / 18.5% respectively, and the listing share of 2022q1 line has increased by 8.4pct to 18.9% (ovicloud network), ranking the top two in the industry. Q1 company's revenue in China is expected to grow by more than 100%. 2) In terms of export sales, the company has gradually established its own global distribution network by setting up overseas branches in the local area, increased local brand marketing, strengthened brand awareness, and focused on the development of markets in the United States, Europe and Southeast Asia. In 2021, the company's overseas self built channel distribution and cross-border e-commerce sales revenue such as Amazon increased by 80% year-on-year to 3.36 billion, and the growth rate in 2021h2 was 61%, which was an important factor of growth Beijing Dynamic Power Co.Ltd(600405) .
The price of raw materials affects the gross profit, and strengthening the investment of expenses drags down the profit. Taking into account the impact of the accounting standard adjustment of the company's transportation cost in 2021, under the same caliber, the company's gross profit margin is expected to decline by 1.8pct to 48.1% in 2021 and 1.3pct to 47.5% in 2022q1, which is mainly affected by the cost of raw materials. In terms of expense ratio, the company increased the investment in marketing expenses and R & D expenses. Under the same caliber, the company's sales and R & D expense ratio increased by 3.8/1.8pct to 16.1% / 7.6% respectively in 2021, and the management and financial expenses were basically stable. In 2022q1, the company's sales expense investment still increased significantly. Under the same caliber, the sales expense rate increased by 4.5pct to 13.3%, and the rate of other expenses decreased. Squeezed by the increase in gross profit margin and expense investment, the company's net profit margin fell 6.2pct to 24.0% in 2021 and 3.1pct to 25.2% in 2022q1. However, on a month on month basis, the net interest rate of the company in 2022q1 increased by 6pct on a month on month basis, and the decline in net interest rate narrowed by 8pct on a month on month basis compared with 2021q4, indicating a positive improvement in profitability.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; New product sales were lower than expected. Investment suggestion: lower the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating.
Considering the recent high volatility of raw material prices, the profit forecast is lowered. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 1.72/22.2/2.64 billion (the previous value was 2.02/25.8/2.97 billion), with a growth rate of 22.7%/28.9%/19.2%; Diluted EPS = 25.8/33.2/39.6 yuan, PE = 22 / 17 / 14x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
