\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 516 Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021. The annual operating revenue was 4.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31.44%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.085 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 98.11%. After deduction, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 774 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 101.42%; In 2021, the operating revenue of Q4 company was 1.083 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 10.04% and a year-on-year ratio of + 15.40%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 211 million yuan, a month on month increase of – 43.12%, a year-on-year increase of + 43.61%.
In 2021, the company’s traditional carbon output was + 4.2% year-on-year, and the gross profit per ton was + 46.1% year-on-year. In 2021, the gross profit of the traditional carbon sector was 875 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.33%, the output was 181000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, the average price was 17292 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, and the gross profit was 4639 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 46.1%.
In 2022q1, the loss of graphite electrode industry narrowed by 24.94% month on month, and the subsequent profitability is expected to continue to improve.
In 2022, the average operating rate of 85 household appliance furnace steel monitored by q1mysteel was 44.19%, with a year-on-year decrease of – 15.38 percentage points. The average price of graphite electrode was 21158 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 5.1%, and the average gross profit of the industry was – 1538 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 24.94%. Since the second quarter, the demand for steel may pick up seasonally. The recovery of electric furnace operating rate will boost the demand for graphite electrode, which may have an impact on the production of graphite electrode under the disturbance of China’s epidemic. It is expected that its price and profitability are expected to rise further.
Chengdu carbon, a subsidiary, focuses on the production of special graphite, with a year-on-year net profit of + 85.20% in 2021. Chengdu carbon, a subsidiary, has a capacity of 10000 tons of isostatic graphite. Its products are mainly used in semiconductor photovoltaic, nuclear industry and other industries. The net profit in 2021 was 246 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 85.20%.
The bidding for some carbon carbon composite projects in Chengdu has been completed, and the construction and installation cycle is expected to be 210 days. According to the official website of Chengdu carbon, the company invited bids for high-temperature furnace, chemical vapor deposition furnace and carbonization furnace of carbon carbon composite production line project, which ended on March 16. It is estimated that the manufacturing cycle is 150 days and the installation cycle is 60 days.
Nuclear power has ushered in an orderly development stage, which is conducive to the demand for nuclear graphite products. The company is the only enterprise qualified to produce nuclear grade carbon products in China. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council have successively formulated the 14th five year plan and 2035 long-term goal and the action plan for carbon peak by 2030, which emphasize the construction of nuclear power, especially the construction of advanced reactor type demonstration projects such as high temperature gas cooled reactor; On April 20, the national Standing Committee once again pointed out that “nuclear power should be developed in an orderly manner under the premise of strict supervision and ensuring absolute safety”, which may drive the future demand growth of the company’s nuclear graphite products.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: as a leading enterprise in the graphite electrode industry, the company has both carbon new material business and provides new driving force for future development. The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222023 is predicted to be 1.780 billion yuan and 2.606 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.47 and 0.68 yuan respectively. The new net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 is 3.385 billion yuan and corresponding EPS of 0.89 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the development space of photovoltaic industry and nuclear power industry is less than expected; The overcapacity of graphite electrode industry, carbon carbon composite materials and other products has led to the decline of profitability China Fangda Group Co.Ltd(000055) issue payable bonds with the company’s shares as the subject matter, and convert shares on a large scale in the future or affect the company’s share price.
