\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 908 Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) )
At present, camping in China is in the stage of savage growth. In the future, it may be deduced from the trend to a way of life.
① from the perspective of user portraits, the post-90s tourists who love nature and catch up with the trend and the post-80s who pay attention to children’s experiential education have become the main force, taking into account the two major needs of healthy baby walking and physical and mental relaxation, improving parent-child relations and becoming a new way for young people to socialize.
② with the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, being close to nature, embracing mountains and rivers, campfires, picnics, aerial music and other camping and leisure ways, the attraction of tourism and shopping will gradually increase compared with traditional tourism and shopping. In the future, it may not only be a short-term trend, but a more popular lifestyle.
③ in 2021, the attention of camping on various travel platforms has increased significantly, and outdoor leisure activities with short distance safety, privacy and social interaction have been sought after. The Qingming fever is high in 2022, and we expect that 2022 will continue the trend of high growth.
Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) will continue to develop both export and brand, and the growth of brand proportion will drive the increase of gross profit margin and valuation.
Brand business: ① Damu accelerated the expansion of various sub categories and strengthened technological innovation; Full field layout, media matrix and diversified content layout; Strengthen Ka channels offline and expand live broadcasting business online;
② Xiaomu creates a complete development chain at the front and rear ends, and optimizes the direct business at the same time.
Export business: ① the business side deeply excavates the needs of old customers and develops off-season customers or off-season products; ② Control the cost of raw materials and logistics at the end of the supply chain; ③ Optimize the organizational structure of product development; ④ Promote the implementation of planned capacity projects and intelligent assembly and storage projects.
Maintain profit forecast and buy rating. Benefiting from the prosperity of the industry and the optimization of the company’s business structure, we expect 22q1 to maintain considerable growth. Previously, the company released the financial budget for 22 years. It is expected that the revenue will increase by 39% to 1.28 billion and the net profit will increase by 53% to 120 million in 22 years, showing strong growth. Although 22q1 is affected by the epidemic in stages, the terminal performance and order production will maintain a good momentum;
In addition, the increase in the proportion of brand business drives the improvement of gross profit margin and opens the ceiling of growth. We expect the net profit of the company in 22-23 years to be 122 million and 180 million respectively, and PE to be 24x and 16x respectively.
Risk tip: the growth of outdoor industry slows down, the price fluctuation risk of raw materials, the intensification of industry competition, recent stock price changes and other risks.
