\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 080 Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) )
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022:
In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 4.662 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 15.9%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 734 million, a year-on-year increase of + 24.5%, and a deduction of non net profit of RMB 602 million, a year-on-year increase of + 7.45%. The gross profit margin on sales and the net profit margin attributable to the parent company were 29.81% and 16.68% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -1.08 and + 1.56pct.
Benefiting from the simultaneous rise of glass fiber volume and price:
The price was stable month on month but increased year-on-year. In 2022q1, the average price of 2400tex national winding direct yarn was 6138 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 333 yuan / ton (+ 5.73%). The cost of natural gas has increased greatly. The maximum sales price of non resident natural gas in Tai’an City is 4.16 yuan / m3, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.86 yuan / m3. Taking the average unit consumption of natural gas of Taibo from 2019 to 2021 as 159 m3 / T, it is estimated that the unit consumption of natural gas has increased by 137 yuan (only the calculation result). Considering the year-on-year rise in the price of pyrophyllite and other minerals (less than that of natural gas) and the decline in the price of electronic cloth, we expect that the profit per ton of Q1 glass fiber will still increase year-on-year. In terms of sales volume, the 100000 ton roving of manzhuang line 9 and the 60000 ton spinning of Zoucheng line 6 were put into operation in September and December 2021 respectively, and the 15000 ton spinning of Zoucheng line 1 was stopped in February 2022. Therefore, we expect a year-on-year capacity increase of 3 Tunghsu Azure Renewable Energy Co.Ltd(000040) 000 tons in 2022q1. On April 21, the company announced that it plans to invest 620 million yuan in Zoucheng, Shandong Province to build a 60000 ton high modulus and high strength glass fiber production line. The products are mainly used in high-power wind power blades and offshore wind power. The construction period is six months. It is expected to further optimize the product structure and reduce costs after being put into operation.
The supply-demand relationship of glass fiber is stable, and the price of roving is strong. On the demand side, we expect that the increment in 2022 will mainly come from exports, new energy vehicles and wind power; The supply side continues to digest the newly invested capacity in the early stage. At the same time, under strict assumptions, the actual new capacity in 2022 is still limited.
Focus on the launch of new capacity of lithium membrane business and the improvement of net profit per ton:
At the end of 2021, the base membrane capacity of the company exceeded 1 billion square meters, and the nominal capacity is expected to exceed 1.5 billion square meters after Tengzhou phase II is put into operation in 2022h1. Focus on the improvement of net profit per ton of lithium film business. 1) the capacity utilization rate and yield rate of new production lines have climbed. 2) by the end of 2021, two major overseas Korean customers have realized batch supply, and the proportion of high priced overseas shipments is expected to increase.
The average price of wind power blade business may continue to be under pressure:
The average price of wind power blades of the company decreased in 2021, which was mainly affected by the sharp decline in the bidding price of wind power units. Recently, the bidding price of wind power has not significantly stabilized and rebounded. Focusing on the development direction of large-scale wind power blades, the company launched a number of new large blade types and paid attention to the forward-looking layout of wind power blade business.
Investment suggestions: continue to pay attention to 1) the price of roving is strong, the production capacity of the company’s glass fiber business has increased this year, and the product structure has been optimized; 2) The capacity of lithium film is released, and the market share and single ton profit are expected to increase; 3) Wind power blades wait for the industry price inflection point. The prospects of the three main businesses are good, and the company’s valuation is significantly low. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.236 billion yuan, 4.951 billion yuan and 5.275 billion yuan respectively. The closing price on April 22 corresponds to the dynamic PE of 20222024, which is 8, 7 and 7x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: China’s glass fiber supply pattern worsens; Lithium film business expansion was less than expected; The investment progress is less than expected; Fluctuation risk of raw materials.
