\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 779 Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) )
Event: Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In the 21st year, the revenue was 4.632 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.199 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.96%. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 0.75 yuan (including tax) per share, with an annual dividend ratio of 30.49%, and disclose the first ESG report. The revenue of 22q1 was 1.415 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 363 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.54%.
The sales volume increased rapidly in 21 years, and the growth rate of 22q1 slowed down. 1) In 21 years, the revenue of high-end products was 4.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54.33%, and the sales volume / average price increased by 40.4% / 9.9%. It is estimated that the high sales contribution is mainly due to the low base impacted by the epidemic in 2020 and the strong rebound in 21 years. Among them, the revenue of zhenniang No. 8 and Jingtai series increased by 55%, the revenue of collection and jingcui series increased by 58%, and the revenue of the eight core markets increased by 61%. Except that Henan and Hunan slowed down due to the impact of epidemic, flood and product optimization, the other six markets maintained a strong growth trend, the base of other markets was relatively low, and the revenue increased by 44%. The revenue of mid-range products increased by 34.4% year-on-year, the sales volume / average price increased by + 38.9% / - 3.2% year-on-year, and the proportion of revenue further decreased. 2) Under the influence of the 22q1 epidemic, the growth rate of revenue slowed down, especially in East China, where the epidemic accounted for a relatively high proportion. The sales volume / average price of alcohol business increased by 11.49% / 1.44% year-on-year, and the revenue of high-end products was 1.36 billion yuan, an increase of 12.15% year-on-year.
22q1 the expense rate increased significantly and the profit was under pressure in the short term. 1) The gross profit margin in the year of 21 was 84.51%, with a slight increase of 0.32pct compared with the same period. It is estimated that it is mainly due to the price increase of products. 22q1 gross profit margin was 84.92%, basically unchanged year-on-year. 2) The sales expense rate in 21 years was 26.48%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.8pct (excluding the impact of transportation expenses). The sales expense rate of 22q1 was 29%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.34pct, mainly due to the increase of investment in publicity and so on, especially after the Spring Festival, more activities were held in cooperation with China ice and snow conference. The ratio of management and R & D expenses in 21 / 22q1 was 7.03% / 7.01%, with a year-on-year increase of -2.33 / + 2.05pct. Overall, the net interest rate in 21 years increased by 1.56pct to 25.89% year-on-year, and the net interest rate in 22q1 decreased by 8.19pct to 25.63% year-on-year due to the impact of the epidemic. 3) In the 21st year / 22q1, the sales collection was 5.34/1.39 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 48.3% / 2.4%, and the net cash flow from operating activities was 1.63/390 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 92.7% / - 35.7%. The year-on-year pressure on 22q1 cash flow was mainly due to the obvious growth of cash outflow such as market advertising expenses and the slowdown of superimposed sales collection. By the end of 22q1, the contract liabilities + other current liabilities were 855 million yuan, a decrease of 14.76% compared with the end of 21. It is estimated that Q2 is mainly affected by the traditional off-season.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the 22-year business goal is that the revenue and net profit will increase by about 15% year-on-year. The impact of the short-term epidemic may slow down the growth, but the social inventory remains healthy and the price of core products is stable. The payment collection task of fiscal year 22 has been basically completed in Jiangsu and other core markets. The company has firmly adhered to the high-end strategy, increased the expansion of group purchase customers, and the new collection has a good growth trend. The new well platform has been listed in April 22. Considering the repeated epidemics in key markets, follow-up or continued high marketing investment, the forecast of net profit for 22-23 years was lowered to 1.39/1.67 billion yuan (7.0% / 8.6% lower than the previous forecast), and the forecast of net profit for 24 years was increased to 2.03 billion yuan, equivalent to EPS of 2.85/3.43/4.15 yuan. The corresponding P / E of the current stock price was 28 / 23 / 19 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the competition of China's second high-end liquor is intensified, and the cost of the Baijiu is not as effective as expected.
