\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 779 Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) )
The company issued 2021 annual report and 2022 first quarter report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 4.63 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 64%; 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 13.4%; In 2022q1, the revenue was 1.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 360 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 13.5%.
2021 ends as scheduled and 2022q1 is under short-term pressure. In 2021, Baijiu sales volume /ASP/ revenue was +40.3%/9.6%/54.1%, excluding the impact of transportation costs on gross margins, reducing the gross profit margin from +1pct to 85.2%, and the high-end product revenue represented by Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) brand increased to 97.8%. 2022Q1 Baijiu sales /ASP/ income was +11.5%/1.4%/13.1% compared to the same year, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Henan as the company’s key market Q1 outbreak repeatedly, as a focus on high-end products of wine enterprises, the company repeatedly driven by the epidemic situation of reducing the impact of drinking scenes larger. The net cash flow from sales / operation of Q1 company was RMB 1.39 billion / 390 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.4% / – 35.7% respectively. The cash flow pressure was driven by the expenditure of publicity.
Adhere to the investment in product promotion, promote high-end, and the profitability is expected to improve month on month. In 2021, thanks to the dilution effect of high revenue growth, the company’s sales / management / R & D expense ratio was 26.5% / 6.6% / 0.4%, respectively – 1.5 / – 2.7 / + 0.4pct year-on-year, of which the sales expense / advertising and promotion expense was + 45.9% / 53.3% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 1.6pct to 25.9% year-on-year; In 2022q1, the company’s sales / management / R & D expense ratio was 29% / 6.5% / 0.5%, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.3% / 1.6% / 0.5pct respectively. Under the high-end strategy, the company continued to increase the promotion of products. Q1 seized the opportunity of the Winter Olympics and cooperated with the China ice and snow conference to become the designated wine for China’s ice and snow, with a year-on-year sales expense of + 52.8% and a year-on-year net profit attributable to the parent company of – 8.2pct to 25.6%. In 2022, the company’s business objective is to increase revenue and net profit by about 15%. Q1 performance is under pressure. It is expected that the subsequent profitability will continue to improve month on month.
Pay attention to the new changes in the company’s high-end strategy and channels. High end: the company set up a business team and consumer training department focusing on high-end products, and promoted from B to C, and further closer to consumers through the ball games (table tennis, tennis, etc.) and national treasure program. The collection is expected to further develop in 2022, and together with the well platform, it will become a high-end Baijiu liquor. At the same time, the eight will continue to lead the growth as a high end product with high cost performance. Deep cultivation of core market is still promising; Channel side: the company continues to optimize the channel management ability, re divide the sales areas from 5 to 8, and pay attention to the promotion of internal talents. At the same time, in addition to the channel mode innovation of high-end sales companies, the company attaches importance to group purchase and enterprise business development, and starts the Jingtai group purchase project and No. 8 potential market development project, which is expected to form a joint force with the circulation channels and further tap the product potential of the Bureau.
Profit forecast: after adjusting the profit forecast in combination with the company’s business objectives and introducing 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 5.37/66.5/8.04 billion yuan in 202224 (compared with 5.90/7.36 billion yuan in 202223), a year-on-year increase of + 15.8% / 23.9% / 21.0%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.41/18.2/22.7 billion yuan (compared with 1.66/2.15 billion yuan in 202223), a year-on-year increase of + 17.7% / 29.1% / 24.6%, corresponding to pe28 / 21 / 17 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the promotion of new products was less than expected, and the macro-economy was down.
