\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 888 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) )
In 2021, the performance increased by 57%, which is consistent with the performance express. In 2021, the revenue was 67.676 billion yuan / + 28.67%; The performance attributable to the parent company is RMB 9.654 billion / + 57.23%, which is consistent with the performance express, and the non performance is deducted by RMB 9.534 billion / + 59.77% (excluding the rent reversal of the previous year and the 30% increase in income tax preference +), eps4.4 94 yuan.
The operation of 2022q1 fluctuated and recovered well from January to February, but the epidemic was obviously under pressure in March. In 2022q1, the company’s revenue was 16.782 billion yuan / – 7.45%; The performance attributable to the parent company is RMB 2.563 billion / – 9.99%, and the non performance deducted is RMB 2.559 billion / – 9.72%, eps1 31 yuan. From January to February, the impact of the epidemic was small, with revenue and performance increasing by about 20% and net interest rate about 18%. However, in March, revenue fell by about 49%, performance fell by 81% and net interest rate was about 4%. The pressure was obvious, mainly due to the repeated epidemic in March and the 4.5-day closure of Haitang Bay.
The profitability center fluctuates with the impact of the epidemic. From 2021q1 to 2022q1, the company’s quarterly gross profit margin is 39% / 38% / 31% / 26% / 34%; Excluding the impact of Q3 income tax return and rent reversal, the estimated net interest rate is 16% / 14% / 9% / 6% / 15%; The impact of 21h2 epidemic is under pressure. The improvement of 2022q1 was mainly due to the rebound of net interest rate from January to February (reaching 18%), but the net interest rate in March was only 4%, mainly dragged down by the epidemic.
Hainan’s duty-free performance is high before and low after the whole year, and the daily direct mail is under pressure. In 2021, the company’s tax-free income in Hainan was 47.096 billion yuan / + 57.19%, and the gross profit margin was 23.57% / – 4.79 PCT (it is expected to exclude wholesale). Among them, Sanya store’s revenue is 35.509 billion yuan / + 66.58%, and the parent company’s performance is 4.168 billion yuan / + 40.46%; Haimian’s operating income is 15.962 billion yuan / + 61.05%, and its parent company’s performance is 793 million yuan / + 20.75%; The daily income of Shanghai was 12.491 billion yuan / – 9.02%, the performance attributable to the parent was 690 million yuan / – 44.66%, and the gross profit margin was 31.08% / – 8.43pct. In the past few days, the revenue of China (i.e. Beijing related airport and online business) was 1.907 billion yuan / – 40.45%. It is estimated that the parent company’s performance was 705 million yuan, reversing the loss year-on-year, but excluding the impact of rent reversal, it is expected to still suffer a loss.
The epidemic still needs to be tracked in the short term, and the scale and channel advantages of the middle line help to improve. The short-term epidemic still affects the main business of the company. In April, Sanya stores were closed for 10 days due to the epidemic, and the pressure on short-term income and profit is expected to remain. However, in the second half of this year, the base pressure is expected to be gradually relieved, and projects such as Haikou international duty-free city and No. 2 land of Sanya phase I are expected to be launched. From the perspective of the middle line, in the future, the company will be based on the first global tax exemption and the continuous strengthening of supply chain capacity after channel expansion and optimization; Second, the deepening of Omni channel layout and the potential tapping and diversified realization of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) flow; Third, under the internal and external competition, the subjective driving force of central enterprises continues to strengthen, from scale to quality, seek benefits from management, and better cope with the diversified and changing market environment in the future through the improvement of core competitiveness.
Risk tips: systemic risks such as epidemic situation, policy risks, significant reduction of China’s duty-free access, etc.
Investment advice: maintain the buy rating. Reduce the company’s EPS from 22-24 years to 5.14/7.18/9.25 yuan (compared with 6.01/7.67 yuan in the previous 22-23 years, mainly reducing the assumption of passenger flow recovery in Hainan in 22-23 years), corresponding to PE valuation of 34 / 25 / 19x. The repeated impact of the short-term epidemic still exists, but the company is based on the dominant position of global tax exemption, comprehensively optimize all aspects of supply chain and channels, and maintain the long-term growth space.
