\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 368 Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) )
Downstream de stocking pressure is large, and the demand fluctuation does not increase the R & D investment
Subject to the de stocking pressure of downstream customers, the operating revenue of 2022q1 company was 302 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.93%; If the impact of share based payment is excluded, the net profit deducted from non parent company in 2022q1 is 06 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 93.40%. Considering that the company is in the period of substantial expansion of R & D team and continuous strengthening of equity incentive, we maintain the profit forecast unchanged. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be RMB 395 / 573 / 916 million, EPS will be RMB 6.37/9.24/14.76, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 23.8/16.4/10.3 times. We believe that the profitability of the company is expected to increase quarterly and maintain the “buy” rating.
“Downstream destocking + Shanghai epidemic + off-season in the first quarter” affected the performance in the first quarter
In terms of downstream destocking, in the first three quarters of 2021, the downstream customers exceeded the end demand of the market, which made the downstream customers’ demand for the company’s products drop significantly in order to digest the early inventory from the fourth quarter of 2021, and continued to affect the product sales of 2022q1 company. In terms of the epidemic in Shanghai, since mid March, the Shanghai area where the company headquarters is located has been seriously affected by the epidemic, and the limited logistics has brought some challenges to product sales. In the light and peak seasons, the company’s product shipments in the first quarter of 2021 reached 25% of the annual shipments, significantly higher than 19% in 2019 and 16% in 2020; In the first quarter of 2022, the imbalance between supply and demand of the industry was alleviated, showing a normal seasonal off-season.
It is proposed to issue bonds for financing, and the R & D team will expand rapidly
On April 22, 2022, the company issued an announcement that it plans to raise non-public directional debt financing of no more than 300 million yuan to repay interest bearing debt, supplement working capital and project construction. In terms of personnel, the number of employees of 2022q1 company increased by 32.26% year-on-year, with a net increase of 110 employees, including 72 new R & D personnel. In terms of R & D expenses, due to the increase of employee compensation and share based payment expenses, the R & D expenses of 2022q1 company increased by 66.57% year-on-year. We believe that in the transition period of the company’s product layout to AC-DC and DC-DC, high R & D investment is a powerful guarantee for the rapid expansion of product series.
Risk warning: upstream capacity continues to tighten; The uncertainty of Sino US trade friction has intensified; The product R & D progress is uncertain.
