\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 888 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) )
In the whole year of 21, the performance was driven by multiple positive factors, with high growth, and the gross profit margin decreased significantly in the second half of the year. The company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years were 67.676 billion yuan and 9.654 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.67% / 57.23%. In the whole year, the performance maintained a high growth thanks to the comprehensive impact of consumption return, the further release of tax-free dividends on outlying islands, the decline of core airport rent and the preferential policy of 15% income tax in Hainan. However, 21h2 was affected by the spread of multi-point epidemic, and the passenger flow in Hainan decreased significantly. China free increased discount promotion to sprint the set goal of the whole year. The gross profit margin decreased significantly in the second half of the year, and the gross profit margins of Q1-Q4 were 39.11% / 37.52% / 31.27% / 26.44% respectively, driving the decline of profit margin.
The profit margin improved significantly in the first quarter of 22 years, and was greatly affected by the epidemic in March. The company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of 22 years were 16.782 billion yuan and 2.563 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 7.45% / - 9.99%. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of Q1 company were 34.00% and 15.27% respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of -5.11pct / -0.44pct and a month on month ratio of + 7.56pct / + 8.87pct. The significant improvement of profit in the first quarter was mainly due to the active enhancement of earnings management and the reduction of discount promotion from January to February. In March, affected by the significant rebound of the epidemic in many places, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent fell sharply by 49% / 81% year-on-year.
The improvement trend of medium-term profit remains unchanged, and the new core channels this year and next are worthy of key expectation. Due to the impact of the epidemic in the short term, it is expected that there will still be business pressure in April and early May, and the short-term business strategy may be adjusted. However, it is expected that with the gradual recovery of offline passenger flow, the profit improvement trend is expected to return to the right track. This year and next, Haikou Xinhai port city and Sanya phase I No. 2 project are expected to be opened one after another, further consolidate the advantages of channels and categories, and continue to consolidate the leading position.
Investment suggestion: continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term growth potential of the company. In the future, there are still many highlights and catalysts in terms of channel and scene extension, upstream and overseas resource integration, new policy dividends (outlying islands, Islanders, City stores, etc.). Considering the impact of the short-term epidemic, we adjusted the 22-year profit forecast. It is expected that the company's EPS in 22-24 years will be 5.20/7.85/9.41 yuan respectively, and the corresponding latest PE will be 34 / 23 / 19 times respectively. The company will be given 30 times PE in 23 years and the target price will be 236 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; Price war in outlying island duty-free market; Macroeconomic growth slowed.
