\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 415 Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) )
Core issue: the short-term performance dispute, PBG, SMBG stall may vs overseas, innovative business boost. 1) At the industry level, although the high growth stage of the industry catalyzed by Ping'an city and Xueliang project has come to an end, under the influence of multiple positive factors such as smart city, digital village, stock replacement and service share increase, we expect the average annual growth rate of the security market to reach about 7% during the 14th Five Year Plan period. 2) At the business level, the industry is still growing + the recovery of fixed asset investment + infrastructure development, and the probability of PBG performance stalling is small; SMBG is more sensitive to the impact of the epidemic and macroeconomic impact, and there is the possibility of performance stall in pessimistic situations; EBG is mainly large-scale and state-owned customers, which is less affected by the epidemic and macro-economy, and maintains stable growth; In the post epidemic era, overseas businesses have accelerated their recovery, and innovative businesses such as fluorite and Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) are looking forward to more surprises. 3) According to our calculation, even under the pessimistic assumption, the company is still expected to maintain a growth rate of 14.14%. When the impact of the epidemic weakens and the macro economy returns to normal operation, we expect the company's growth rate to rise to a higher level.
Value judgment: from standardized products to semi standardized and semi customized solutions, and then to complete customization. The company has experienced three stages in the development process of more than 20 years: 1) from 2001 to 2010, the supplier of standardized products; 2) 20112015: supplier of semi standardized and semi customized solutions; 3) Since 2016, it has been a fully customized provider of digital transformation solutions for the industry. This is a unique transformation and development process in the global manufacturing industry. The core of its success lies in the company's consistent high R & D investment. In more than 20 years, the proportion of R & D expenses has increased from 5% to 10%, and the proportion of R & D personnel has increased from 28% to 48%. R & D achievement 1: the software and hardware product system is a unified platform, and the R & D team supports each other. The software demand drives the hardware R & D, and the hardware capability drives the software R & D. R & D achievement 2: combination of general and special, software platform + algorithm + model + service. In addition to R & D, the advantages of channel laying + organizational structure innovation + talent training mechanism + flexible production system have highlighted the company's core competitive advantage and stabilized the leading position in the industry.
Long term development: customization and fragmentation are the inevitable direction of industrial development, and the value of scarce channels is significantly underestimated. With the rise of "Ai + security", intelligent security has gradually penetrated into finance, education, buildings, families and other scenes, and the characteristics of industry fragmentation and customization are becoming more and more obvious. Compared with competitors, the company has first mover advantages in perceived technology, product hardware and solutions, but the most important difference comes from industry understanding and scene landing. On the one hand, taking the marketing service network as the root and having a perfect marketing service network that can sink to villages and towns is the key for the company to deeply understand and acquire industry knowledge and accurately grasp the pain points of customer needs; On the other hand, based on the production research system, the company moves forward its R & D and technical support resources to match the laid marketing service network, and has closer contact and service customers, which makes the scarce value of the channel particularly prominent.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect that the company's EPS in 22-24 years will be 2.08, 2.51 and 3.04 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 20, 17 and 14 times respectively. We are optimistic about the company's leading position in the security industry and its significant industry competitive advantage, and give the company a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: the development of the security industry does not meet expectations, the impact of the epidemic, and the increased operational risk of small and medium-sized enterprises
