\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 436 Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the company realized a revenue of 2.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 689 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.93%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 676 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.78%.
The performance is in line with expectations. The company's 22q1 performance is in line with the median value of the previous forecast. Previously, the company announced that from January to February 2022, the company achieved a revenue of about 1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 16%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%. Judging from this caliber, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of about RMB 90 million in March, and the profit side growth rate was higher than that from January to February.
Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) series drugs returned to steady growth and the profit margin was improved. According to the company's announcement, in 22q1, the company's revenue from liver disease drugs ( Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) core drugs) was 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.7%, and the gross profit margin was 80.23%, a year-on-year decrease of about 0.8pct. In 2021, the revenue of Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) core drugs was 3.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 46%; From the quarterly trend, the growth rate of Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) core drug revenue in the four quarters of 21q1-21q4 was 20.55%, 34.16%, 45.17% and 133.26% respectively (see the attached figure below for specific data). The growth rate of Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) year-on-year in 22q1 slowed down. According to the split of our model, according to China and overseas markets, 22q1 Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) China's revenue is about 970 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.35%; Overseas revenue was about 140 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.11%. From the quarterly trend, the growth rate fell, and the growth rate of the Chinese market fell relatively significantly. In q2-q4 in 2021, Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) core drugs increased rapidly. On the one hand, the obvious rise of terminal prices led to the rapid increase of market demand and the strengthening of customers' willingness to store goods; On the other hand, the opening of online direct sales channels has led to the increase of Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) core drug sales and the price of actual recognized revenue (the recognized revenue of online direct sales channels is higher than that of experience halls and distribution models). At present, these two factors have been weakened; According to the data of jd.com and tmall Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) pharmacy flagship stores and our model calculation, online direct sales account for about 35% in 21q3, and gradually fall back to 25% and 10% in 21q4 and 22q1 Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) terminal is no longer out of stock, and the price tends to be stable. 22q1, the net profit margin of the parent company (core drug business) was 57.8%, with a year-on-year increase of about 2pct. We judged that the direct selling mode and scale effect of core drugs reduced the intermediate cost under the decline of gross profit margin.
Other drugs are growing rapidly, and Angong Niuhuang Pill has become a potential new product. In 2021, the company's revenue from drugs other than liver diseases was 270 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 40%, and 22q1, with a revenue of 78 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 47%, mainly due to the contribution of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs. In 2021, the revenue from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs was 96 million yuan and 22q1, with a rapid momentum. The company's cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products are mainly Angong Niuhuang pills, which are forming new potential single products under the key cultivation of the company in 2021.
The daily chemical cosmetics business was adjusted and the food business broke out. 22q1, the revenue of daily chemical cosmetics business was 190 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of - 13.2%, continuing the downward trend in 2021 (the revenue of 21 years was 840 million, with a year-on-year decrease of - 7%). On the one hand, the impact of the epidemic situation; on the other hand, the cosmetics company may make some adjustments to its business in the planning of separate listing. The toothpaste business (the revenue of the oral subsidiary was 150 million yuan in 21 years, with a decline for two consecutive years, but the profit margin increased from loss to 23% in 21 years). The income of food business in 21 years and 22q1 was 45 million yuan and 32 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 299% and 561%.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.99 billion yuan, 3.59 billion yuan and 4.29 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 22.8%, 20.2% and 19.5% respectively; EPS is 4.95 yuan, 5.95 yuan and 7.11 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 60x, 50x and 42x respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) revenue growth rate declined; The rise of raw material prices leads to the decline of product gross profit margin; The volume of daily chemical products is lower than expected; The epidemic continues to affect Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) overseas sales.
