\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 233 Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) )
Core view
In the first quarter, the operation was under pressure and the profit decreased significantly. In 2022, Q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 1.255 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 16.37%. The decline in revenue was mainly caused by sales volume; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 53 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 85.04%. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 115 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of - 56.92%. The large decline in profit was mainly affected by the rise of coal price and the average sales cost of cement. The significant year-on-year decrease in non recurring profit and loss was mainly due to the large floating losses of the company's securities investment due to the decline of stock index during the reporting period and the large amount of equity disposal income of wholly-owned mixing plant in the same period of last year.
Many factors led to a decline in sales, and cost pressure led to a decline in profitability. In Q1 2022, the company achieved 3.4845 million tons of cement sales, with a year-on-year decrease of - 25.39%. The decrease in sales was mainly due to the slowdown of real estate investment, the superposition of the cold and rainy weather in Guangdong and the impact of the epidemic, the slow recovery of downstream construction and the sluggish demand performance. In terms of profitability, we estimate that the company's cement revenue per ton / cost per ton / gross profit per ton under the full caliber is 360.09/276.03/84.07 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 38.84 / + 58.48 / - 19.64 yuan / ton. Although the cement price of Q1 company is at a high level year-on-year, due to the rise of coal price and other factors, the cost increases and the range is much larger than the rise of selling price, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in profitability. In terms of expense control, the expense rate during the reporting period was 8.80%, a slight increase of 1.81 PCT over the same period, of which the sales / management / Finance / R & D expense rates were 1.0% / 8.3% / - 0.7% / 0.2% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.1 / + 1.7 / - 0.06 / + 0.03pct. In terms of cash flow, the net cash flow from operating activities in the current period was -419 million, a year-on-year increase of -172864%, due to the decline in profits caused by the decline in sales and the increase in cement inventory; The asset debt structure remained optimized. At the end of the first quarter, the company's asset liability ratio was 11.15%, down 2.35pct from the fourth quarter of last year.
Explore new paths of green development and actively promote low-carbon upgrading and transformation. In recent years, the company has actively responded to national environmental protection policies, explored new paths of green development, optimized energy use structure, and accelerated green and low-carbon upgrading and transformation. In the first quarter of this year, the company's non operating income was 6.1945 million yuan, mainly due to the increase in revenue from the sale of carbon emission quotas by its subsidiary Huizhou tower. In addition, the company is still actively building green mines, digital mines, green factories, intelligent factories and first-class safety standard enterprises; In response to the call of the dual carbon policy, accelerate the construction of projects such as photovoltaic power generation and coordinated disposal of solid waste in cement kilns, and strengthen energy consumption control and technological transformation.
Risk warning: the increase of supply exceeds expectations; The implementation of the project is not as expected; The epidemic situation is repeated.
Investment suggestion: the cement industry in eastern Guangdong is the leading enterprise, maintaining the "buy" rating. This year, the annual planned investment of key projects in Guangdong is about 900 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.5%. By the end of the first quarter, the total issuance of local government bonds in Guangdong exceeded 170 billion, ranking first in China. With the acceleration of the follow-up resumption of work, regional demand still has a certain support. As the largest cement enterprise in eastern Guangdong, the company has outstanding advantages in geographical location, resource layout, cost scale and other aspects. It is expected that the EPS of 202224 will be 1.60/1.69/1.77 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 5.8/5.5/5.4x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
