In the past four trading days, the offshore RMB depreciated by more than 1400 basis points against the US dollar.
RMB exchange rate callback
a-share devaluation benefit concept rises
Recently, with the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates increased, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell rapidly. In the past four trading days, the offshore RMB fell for four consecutive days, falling below the integer mark of 6.45, 6.46, 6.47, 6.48 and 6.49, and broke through the mark of 6.5 on Friday, with the lowest falling to 6.5267 In the past four trading days, the offshore RMB depreciated by more than 1400 basis points against the US dollar. It fell by more than 2.2% in four days and hit a new low since July last year.
under the expectation of RMB devaluation, the concept of devaluation benefit represented by textile and clothing in the A-share market was popular. As of the closing, more than 20 concepts of textile and clothing rose by the limit or more than 10%
China US monetary policy accelerated differentiation
RMB short-term pressure
From the perspective of the reasons for the depreciation of RMB, it mainly includes four aspects: first, the US dollar index has hit the highest value of 101.07 in the past two years, which poses great downward pressure on the RMB exchange rate; Second, the recent sharp fall in exchange rates such as the yen and the Korean won has made many investment institutions bearish on the currencies of the Asia Pacific region, intensifying the decline of the RMB; Third, the epidemic factors have had a short-term impact on China’s foreign trade, causing some investment institutions that were originally optimistic about the continuation of the high prosperity of China’s foreign trade to reduce their long positions in RMB; Fourth, the rise in global energy prices has led Chinese import enterprises to increase the amount of foreign exchange to purchase energy products, which has virtually dragged down the further decline of the RMB exchange rate.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation has increased recently, mainly due to the downward pressure on economic fundamentals caused by the epidemic and the strengthening of the US dollar. The supply chain disturbance combined with the rise of the US dollar index may put pressure on the short-term RMB, but there is no need to form depreciation expectations for the RMB. It is expected that the RMB depreciation will have a limited impact on monetary policy.
Some analysts pointed out that the narrowing or even upside down of the interest rate spread caused by the differentiation of China US economic fundamentals and monetary policies is difficult to reverse quickly, the pressure of international capital outflow and RMB exchange rate depreciation will still exist, and the RMB may be under pressure in the short term. However, the market does not need to worry too much about the medium and long-term trend, and two-way fluctuations will still be the norm of the RMB exchange rate.
Under the expectation of RMB devaluation, listed companies with a high proportion of overseas exports have benefited significantly, typically including companies with a high proportion of exports such as textiles and clothing, household appliances, toys, electromechanical and furniture.
32 companies’ overseas business accounts for more than 90% of their revenue
From the perspective of a shares, according to the statistics of securities times and databao, among the companies that have disclosed the annual report of 2021, more than 1500 companies have overseas business income, with a total income of 3.74 trillion yuan, of which more than 400 companies have overseas income of more than 1billion yuan Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) the overseas business income of the three companies exceeded 100 billion yuan China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) , CNOOC and other 74 companies have overseas business income of more than 10 billion yuan.
In terms of the proportion of overseas business income to total revenue, more than 220 companies accounted for more than 50% of overseas revenue, and 32 companies accounted for more than 90% At the same time, the \ etc. account for more than 98%. Taking Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) as an example, the company received 2.049 billion yuan last year, including 2.047 billion yuan of overseas business income.
Under the environment of RMB appreciation last year, how about the performance of the above companies whose revenue accounts for more than 50%. Statistics show that among the more than 220 companies, nearly 80 companies’ performance fell, and more than 140 companies’ performance was growing last year Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) , Ingenic Semiconductor Co.Ltd(300223) , Chtc Helon Co.Ltd(000677) 4 shares increased their net profit by more than 10 times last year. However, from the perspective of the reasons for the growth of performance, the reason for the growth of the performance is that the reason for the increase in the performance of the ‘ Chtc Helon Co.Ltd(000677) is the supply of curtain canvas industry
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