From 2022 to now, the tone of property market regulation has been clear, from rectifying deviations to the current support, and the relaxation policy has also been expanded from third and fourth tier cities to second tier cities. The support has been continuously strengthened. Many cities have broken through the purchase and sale restrictions and other policies, including the presence of provincial capital cities.
According to the incomplete statistics of Zhuge housing search data research center, as of April 20, more than 85 cities across the country have issued deregulation policies, with more than 100 times of regulation and control. In the first 20 days of April, policies were issued 31 times in total, significantly higher than the average frequency of about 25 times a month in the first three months, becoming more frequent.
Among them, according to the incomplete statistics of China first finance and economics, since 2022, eight provincial capital cities, including Zhengzhou, Harbin, Fuzhou, Lanzhou, Kunming, Nanning, Nanjing and Yinchuan, have issued property market relaxation policies.
The deregulation policy mainly focuses on the demand side, including relaxing the settlement, increasing the amount or relaxing the conditions of provident fund loans, reducing the down payment ratio, reducing the housing loan interest rate, etc. the relaxation of provident fund loans is the most commonly used means of local governments. Among them, since Zhengzhou, policies such as relaxing purchase and loan restrictions and sales restrictions began to appear more frequently.
However, from the data performance, market sales remained low. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first quarter of this year, the sales area of commercial housing was 310.46 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%; Among them, the residential sales area decreased by 18.6%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 2965.5 billion yuan, down 22.7%; Among them, residential sales decreased by 25.6%.
Based on this reality, the industry generally believes that the policies to stabilize the property market will continue to be introduced Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) research report pointed out that under the premise of economic instability, relaxation and “no speculation in housing and housing”, there are still high expectations for improvement in the policy.
first break “house and loan”
Among the provincial capital cities, Nanning, Guangxi, was the first to introduce the deregulation policy. In late February, Nanning issued a new housing provident fund policy, reducing the down payment ratio of provident fund loans for the second house from 40% to 30%; At the same time, the amount of provident fund loans has also increased to varying degrees.
The relaxation policy itself, from the degree of relaxation to the policy aspects involved, is still limited to the provident fund. Although it has aroused some attention, there is no obvious breakthrough. This state was broken by Zhengzhou in one fell swoop.
In early March, after the impact of floods and epidemics, Zhengzhou issued “19 articles” on the regulation of the real estate market, including several sharp tools such as partially relaxing purchase restrictions, subsidies for talent purchase, reducing housing loan interest rates, and promoting the construction and transformation of resettlement housing.
One of the most representative policies is to implement the first house loan policy for families with a set of housing and have settled the corresponding loans, and the down payment ratio will be reduced from 60% to 30%, that is, “recognizing loans but not recognizing houses”. This is the first key city to deregulate “house and loan” since the tightening of regulation in 2016, which is conducive to easing the pressure on home ownership to improve demand.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) real estate industry analyst Yang Kan pointed out that Zhengzhou, as an important provincial capital city, including policies such as “recognizing loans but not houses”, is conducive to injecting confidence into the real estate market and has a certain demonstration effect in the country. At present, the downward pressure on the real estate market is still large, and the financial difficulties of some real estate enterprises have not been solved. The follow-up fine-tuning in regions or cities with high pressure will not be ruled out, because the urban implementation policies will continue to be interpreted.
After that, in March, only Fuzhou and Harbin released relaxation policies. Among them, on the basis of the continuous decline of housing loan interest rate, Fuzhou once again launched the property market support policy to reduce the purchase threshold of Changle Hukou and foreign Hukou in Wucheng District; Harbin announced the abolition of the sales restriction policy introduced in 2018.
Since then, in early April, Lanzhou followed up the policy of Zhengzhou. In terms of relaxation of purchase restrictions, filial piety and multi child families can purchase a new set of real estate in the purchase restriction area; In terms of loan restriction, in addition to the implementation of “recognizing loans but not recognizing houses” in the identification of the first house, the proportion of down payment was significantly reduced, including 20% for the first house and 30% for the second house.
Yihan think tank believes that although the effect of the new deal itself may be limited for Lanzhou, which lacks a good population and development foundation, starting with Zhengzhou and Lanzhou, we expect more second tier cities to gradually open the policy toolbox and introduce substantive easing policies. “We believe that this round of market stabilization and recovery in second tier cities will play a vital role in the overall market.”
Lanzhou’s policy has indeed opened the door to the deregulation of provincial capital cities. Since April, several provincial capital cities have disclosed the relaxation policy.
In mid April, Liuhe District and Lishui District of Nanjing outer suburb market relaxed the purchase restriction policy. In the same period, Kunming also issued relevant documents and put forward 25 policies, including raising the loan amount of housing provident fund, reducing the proportion of down payment for the purchase of two sets of housing, allowing real estate enterprises to delay the payment of land funds, increasing monetization resettlement, etc., so as to ensure reasonable housing demand and boost improved demand at the same time.
On April 20, another western provincial capital city joined the ranks of deregulation. Yinchuan adjusted the housing provident fund policy. For those who have used the housing provident fund and have settled their personal housing loans, and those who apply for housing provident fund purchase again to improve their living conditions, the minimum down payment ratio is adjusted to 30%; For the purchase of existing commercial housing (second-hand housing), the minimum down payment proportion shall be adjusted to 40%.
industry improvement still needs time
Many provincial capitals that have made great efforts to release positive signals can not escape the plot of sluggish sales market.
Taking Kunming as an example, the data disclosed in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) research report shows that in the first quarter of 2022, the supply of commercial housing in five districts of the main city of Kunming decreased by 21.9% year-on-year, and the trading volume decreased by 42.4% year-on-year; The sales price of commercial housing was 14750 yuan / m2, with a slight increase in the ring ratio, but a year-on-year decrease of nearly 6%.
Among them, the inventory removal cycle of Kunming in March reached 30 months, surpassing most provincial capitals. At present, the lowest commercial loan interest rate of the first house in Kunming has been reduced to 4.6%, and major banks have also reduced the down payment ratio of the first house to 20%.
Zhengzhou was also under similar market conditions when it launched the “Nineteen articles”. According to Kerui data, at the end of 2021, the narrow inventory scale of new houses in Zhengzhou was close to 15 million square meters, and the digestion cycle was more than 20 months. In February 2022, due to the continuous low turnover, the digestion cycle of new house inventory jumped to 31 months.
After the implementation of the new deal for one month, the market in Zhengzhou showed signs of recovery. According to Kerui data, in March this year, the average removal rate of new houses in Zhengzhou was 17%, and the highest removal rate of a single project was 34%, up from February 2022; At the same time, the number of project visits and sales flow rate increased steadily. In March, the monthly average number of visits and monthly average flow rate of a single project reached 325 groups and 20 sets respectively, more than double the low point in January; The viewing volume of second-hand houses reached more than 50000 groups, an increase of 140% month on month.
However, from the perspective of the national market, the current policy support is still insufficient for market repair.
According to the data of Capital Securities Research Report, in March, the single month year-on-year growth rates of commercial housing sales area and amount were – 17.7% and – 26.2% respectively, down 8.1 percentage points and 6.9 percentage points respectively compared with the previous two months, and the single month sales have increased negatively for eight consecutive months.
“Although some cities have successively relaxed regulation and control under the framework of urban policy implementation, the spread of the epidemic and residents’ willingness to increase leverage have been squeezed, and the market expectation has not shown signs of reversal.” Capital Securities pointed out that from the current policy feedback effect, the scope and intensity of easing need to be upgraded before it is possible to gradually break the negative feedback situation of industry supply and demand.
More extensive relaxation in the future is also worth looking forward to. Following the RRR reduction announced on April 15, the central bank proposed on April 18 that due to the implementation of urban policies, the differentiated housing credit policy should be implemented, and the minimum down payment ratio and minimum loan interest rate requirements of commercial individual housing loans within the jurisdiction should be reasonably determined, further clarifying the attitude of continuing to increase demand side support.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that there is still a lot of room for the current policy to operate. For example, there is still a lot of room for the reduction of mortgage interest rate. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, if the mortgage interest rate drops by another 50 BP, it will not fall below the LPR; At the same time, the vast majority of low-level cities have not yet reached the down payment ratio of 20%, and the down payment of the first suite in most high-line cities is also more than 30%; There is also room to encourage the use of provident fund. “The second quarter will still be a period of policy focus.” The agency expects.
