New energy
1) photovoltaic: this week, the price of silicon wafer in the photovoltaic industry chain increased the most, followed by the upstream polysilicon material and polysilicon, and the downstream battery and module prices remained unchanged. Upstream: polysilicon is expected to rise by 0.2% and polysilicon by 0.8% this week. Midstream: silicon wafer prices rose 1.2% this week. Affected by the current round of epidemic, according to the information of the silicon branch, a total of four specialized silicon wafer enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai stopped production, two stopped crystal pulling, one enterprise will resume production in the near future, and the slicing link of one enterprise will be affected. The disruption of the logistics supply chain caused by the epidemic continues to affect the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and the release of the supply side fails to arrive as scheduled. On April 13, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) raised p-type M10 165 of monocrystalline silicon wafer μ M thickness (182 / 247mm) to 6.82, with an increase of 1.8%, which is the fifth price increase of M10 silicon wafer in the year. It is expected that the supply of polysilicon materials will be limited and the output will be reduced in April, while the downstream demand has not seen the risk of shutdown. It is expected that the upstream and midstream prices will remain strong in the short term. Downstream: the price of battery chips and components this week remains the same as last week, and the downstream price is still in the game. In the follow-up, it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the changes in overseas demand (India will increase taxes on photovoltaic cells and modules by 25% and 40% respectively from April 1. At the same time, the US Department of Commerce announced on March 25 that it will launch an investigation on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells imported from Chinese companies in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, and may impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) .
2) battery: cobalt and nickel: this week, cobalt rose by 0.4% and nickel rose by 5.7%. Lithium: lithium fluorophosphate continued to fall by 2.2% on Saturday. Lithium carbonate fell 1.5% and lithium hydroxide fell 0.1% this week. On Wednesday, the price of RMB 811 cathode material remained unchanged, and the lithium iron phosphate cathode material fell 1.2%. Affected by the current round of epidemic, enterprises in Shanghai, Jilin and other places have shut down and stopped production one after another. On April 9, Weilai announced that since March, due to the epidemic, the company’s supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have stopped production one after another, which has not been recovered yet. Affected by this, Weilai vehicle production has been suspended, and Tesla‘s Shanghai factory has also stopped production. The production of downstream car enterprises is blocked, the demand for orders of upstream batteries and lithium salts is reduced, and the procurement is weak, which can not support the high price operation of the upstream in the short term.
3) new energy vehicles: according to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid March 2022 was 484000, with a year-on-year increase of 114.3%, and the growth rate decreased significantly by 90.3 percentage points compared with the previous month. At present, the cost of upstream power batteries is rising, and the price of new energy vehicles is also rising. On the other hand, the rapid spread of the epidemic since March has had a great impact on the production and manufacturing of automobile enterprises. At the same time, policies such as epidemic sealing and control have also hit the demand of consumers. Therefore, in the short term, there may be pressure on the sales of new energy vehicles in April.
Real estate
1) steel: this week, rebar spot fell by 0.2%, rebar spot inventory fell by 2.8%, and rebar futures price rose by 0.6%. Cost side: iron ore fell 1.5% this week. Iron ore inventories fell slightly by 2.3%. Supply side: according to the data of China Steel Association, the daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 2.224 million tons in early April 2022, an increase of 2.96% month on month. Demand side: in March, the PMI of China’s steel industry was 44.3%, down 3.0 percentage points month on month, and below the 50% dividing line. Recently, the epidemic situation in China has been serious, the logistics has been seriously blocked, the transportation of materials and finished products and labor flow are inconvenient, and the demand is under pressure in the short term. Generally speaking, the steel industry is now in a pattern of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of the epidemic situation, local real estate policies will continue to be liberalized, infrastructure will be strengthened, and the demand may be released intensively.
2) building materials: cement: this week, the national cement price index fell by 0.1%, of which the cement price in Northwest China fell by 2.5%, while the cement price in Southwest China rose by 1.8%. Affected by the epidemic in East China, it was basically suspended. In the early stage of Northwest China, the cement manufacturers increased, the market acceptance was poor, and then the price was reduced. The southwest region has been divided, and the price of cement has been raised with the help of the rise in the price of raw materials. Glass: the settlement price of glass futures fell 1.3% this week. Affected by the recent epidemic, transportation is blocked, spot transactions are light, construction orders are insufficient, and the demand is more cautious.
Consumption
1) pork: the price of live pigs rose by 1.6% and the price of pork rose by 3.1% this week. The national development and Reform Commission continued to promote the collection and storage of pork, boosting the confidence of farmers. In addition to the central collection and storage, there are also local collection and storage actions. On April 8, Gansu launched the temporary collection and storage of pork, with a total of 1000 tons; On April 11, Jiangxi also launched the temporary collection and storage of 1000 tons of pork; On April 14, Sichuan launched the second upgraded collection and storage in the year, with a total of 1500 tons. Pig prices have fallen by more than 20% since the beginning of the year. This round of pig prices may have entered the bottom grinding area.
2) Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) : soybeans rose 3.3% this week, which may be related to the sharp rise in CBOT soybean prices, and the spot price of soybean meal in China increased significantly. This week, corn and corn starch decreased by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively. Affected by the epidemic, firstly, the spot market of corn was relatively light. In early April, wheat prices fell 2.5% month on month.
3) packaging materials for consumer goods: the price of pet fell by 1.8% this week, the demand for terminal procurement was light, and the market operation decreased.
4) Baijiu: Moutai’s 53 point Moutai price was 2820 yuan this week, down 60 yuan from last week’s 2880. I Maotai has been online for half a month. From March 31 to April 12, the average number of daily reservation applications of I Maotai has increased from 6.2 million to 7.22 million. The total amount of the four products put in every day is stable between 25000 and 26000 bottles.
5) passenger cars: in March 2022, China supplied 1.864 million passenger cars, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, and the growth rate decreased significantly compared with 27.8% of the previous month. The epidemic has led to limited logistics, which has a great impact on automobile sales in Jilin, Shanghai, Shandong, Guangdong and other places.
6) travel: in March 2022, the seating rate of the three major airlines was 60.9%, down 4.7 percentage points from the previous month. In April, the epidemic situation was further fermented. On April 16, the two airports in Shanghai carried 19 passenger flights, including 6 in Hongqiao China, 11 in Pudong International and 2 in China. As one of the most important transportation hubs in China, travel in Shanghai has fallen to the freezing point under the influence of the epidemic, and the travel data is expected to decline further in April.
Midstream manufacturing
1) excavators: according to the data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the sales volume of excavators in China decreased by 53.1% year-on-year in March 2022, with a sharp increase of 39.6 percentage points compared with the previous month. “Peak season is not prosperous”, in which China decreased by 63.6% year-on-year and exports increased by 73.5% year-on-year. This is mainly related to the high base in the same period last year and the shutdown and insufficient demand caused by the rebound of this round of epidemic.
2) heavy trucks: in March 2022, the sales volume of heavy trucks in China decreased by 66.6% year-on-year, and the decline rate increased by 16.7 percentage points month on month.
The rebound of the epidemic situation in various regions has directly affected the smooth logistics and transportation, delayed the construction process in various regions, and restrained the terminal demand.
Cycle
1) non ferrous metals: macro aspect: on April 14, the yield of 10-year US bonds reached 2.83%. The PPI of the United States in March was 11.2% year-on-year and expected to be 10.6%. Precious metals: gold rose 2.2% and silver rose 3.9% this week. Industrial metals: LME copper rose 0.2%, LME aluminum fell 3.0%, LME lead rose 3.2% and LME zinc rose 6.4% this week. Rare earth: praseodymium neodymium oxide fell sharply by 8.9% this week.
2) crude oil: crude oil rose sharply by 11.1% this week. Last week, Europe and the United States reached an agreement on banning Russian coal, which is the first energy field for the EU to sanction Russia. According to the New York Times, European officials are drafting an embargo plan on Russian oil products. OPEC warned that if the Russian oil is fully embargoed, 7 million barrels of Russian oil products will not be able to enter the international market every day. At that time, the market will face serious supply risks, and the international oil price will soar again.
3) coal: the price of power coal futures rose by 1.3% this week, power coal entered the off-season, the daily consumption of power plants fell seasonally, the epidemic suppressed downstream demand, the market trading sentiment was cold, the wait-and-see attitude was maintained, and the overall market margin weakened.
4) transportation: the BDI index rebounded by 3.7% this week, and China’s coastal bulk freight rate index continued to fall by 8.0%. It is worth noting that China’s vehicle freight index rebounded by 2.5% month on month this week, and the index fell by 26.4% in the past month. The calculation method of the index is based on the comparison between the number of vehicle tasks in the current week and the weekly average number of tasks in 2019, which represents the current vehicle cargo transportation situation. During the period when the epidemic situation in Shanghai is still at a high level, many expressways in China have been closed, which has seriously affected the logistics and transportation. The Ministry of transport has carried out work deployment on logistics issues for many times this week. From this week, logistics and transportation began to be partially alleviated.
