Shrink! On Friday (April 22), the three major A-share indexes fluctuated. The Shanghai index once crossed 3100 points, and the transaction amount decreased slightly. In terms of hot spots, textile and clothing led the rise, while electricity, green power, shipping ports and other sectors performed better. In addition, six sectors, including the concept of prefabricated vegetables, transgenic, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing, fell by more than 4%. How should investors respond to market shocks?
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% to 308692 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.29% to 1105170 points, and the gem index fell 0.69% to 229660 points; The total turnover of the two cities was 753269 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.04%, and the net purchase of funds from the North was 6.765 billion yuan. From the weekly perspective, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.87%; The Shenzhen composite index fell by 5.12%; The gem index fell 6.66%.
In terms of individual stocks, on Friday, the A-share market rose less and fell more. A total of 1650 stocks rose and 3037 stocks fell. Among them, 86 stocks closed at the daily limit and 111 stocks fell by the limit. From the perspective of the industry, the industries with more trading stocks are textile and clothing, commercial snacks and public utilities.
Trading limit of individual stocks on Friday (April 22):
For the downward trend of a shares, institutions generally said that at present, the bottom signal of A-share market is gradually showing, and only one opportunity is needed for the upward trend.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that at present, A-Shares have begun to trigger the bottom signal again. From the perspective of credit cycle, it should be the starting point of another three-and-a-half-year upward cycle. At present, A-Shares are already the bottom area. They are in the process of bottoming, and may have bottomed out. At the same time, A-Shares may usher in a more certain upward “perfect storm”, and the time window is about from mid April to mid May.
Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) gold investment consultant Wang Kan said that technically, the Shanghai index has formed a form of double bottom, and the medium and short-term moving average has been suppressed downward. Under this weak pattern, the market needs to continue to release risks until a long short balance is formed. In this way, we have the opportunity to make the technical form of W bottom and pull the adjustment back to the regional shock again. From the time node, there was an interest rate discussion by the Federal Reserve in early May. The interest rate increase should be a high probability event. The market generally believes that the interest rate will be increased by 50 basis points this time. However, if the Fed maintains 25 basis points, it will adjust the market expectations, which will form a short-term good, and there will be a rebound window for financial markets outside the United States.
At the same time, public funds, private placement and other institutions have also put forward their views on the future market. Xia Fengguang, manager of financial intelligence investment fund under paipai.com, said that the fundamentals were blowing frequently this week. The State Council issued a document to promote the development of individual pensions, and the CSRC held a symposium to promote the smooth operation of the market. However, the market is numb to the good news, which is a manifestation of the concentrated release of pessimism. The next step for the market to fully get out of the dilemma depends on when the economy has an inflection point. If the economic inflection point appears in the second quarter, it is believed that more and more industry fundamentals will improve. At present, it is still a good time for the layout on the left.
Xu Jie, general manager of Gumu investment, said that after April, after the spread of the epidemic in Shanghai to surrounding cities, the gradual upgrading of local prevention and control policies cast a shadow on the future economic recovery. The superposition of loose policies failed to exceed expectations. The Shanghai index began to bottom twice and the Shenzhen index hit a new low in the year. However, after the second bottom, the overall valuation of A-Shares has entered a relatively low range, and pessimism has been released again. As the bottom of sentiment is gradually revealed, future opportunities outweigh risks, and the future probability enters the stage of structural rebound. From a technical point of view, the Shanghai index will probably have to go through three to six months before it can regain its upward trend.
Shen Shengcai, a researcher at ningshui capital, believes that the Shanghai index has started to bottom twice, the Shenzhen composite index has hit a new low this year, the overall valuation of A-Shares has entered a relatively low range, and the P / E ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has returned to the low point when the bull market started in early 2019, so it is not appropriate to be overly pessimistic.
Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, said that investors were cautious and the market was still grinding to the bottom. The uncertainty and investor sentiment suppression caused by repeated outbreaks in China, overseas geographical conflicts and the tightening of liquidity by the Federal Reserve are still relatively large. Although China’s steady growth policy has provided some support to the market, the current strength is not enough to promote the market to launch a counter attack.
hot spot: textile and garment led the rise, with an increase of 5.46%
In terms of the industry sector, 22 industries rose on Friday, led by the textile and garment industry, with an increase of 5.46%. Three industries, such as power industry, shipping port and insurance, also increased by more than 2%; Among the 64 industry sectors that fell, 13 sectors, including agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing, tourism, hotels and semiconductors, fell by more than 2%.
On the news front, recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the guiding opinions on the high-quality development of industrial textiles industry. According to the opinions, by 2025, the industrial added value of Enterprises above Designated Size will increase by about 6% annually, and 3 ~ 5 enterprises will enter the first echelon of industrial textiles in the world. The ability of scientific and technological innovation has been significantly improved. The R & D funds of key enterprises in the industry account for 3% of the main business income, the application of recycled fiber and biomass fiber accounts for 15%, the NC rate of key processes in nonwovens enterprises reaches 70%, intelligent manufacturing and green manufacturing have an obvious effect on improving the quality and efficiency of the industry, and the comprehensive competitiveness of the industry has been further improved.
For the investment object, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) expressed concern about Tianhong textile, Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) , Wuhu Fuchun Dye And Weave Co.Ltd(605189) , Huafu Fashion Co.Ltd(002042) . The short-term high cotton price shock trend continues, which is good for the head yarn enterprises with sufficient orders and price transmission ability; At the same time, with the transfer of some cotton textile orders to Southeast Asia, this trend may be good for yarn enterprises that have layout in Southeast Asia and other overseas regions and some adopt foreign cotton production.
freezing point: agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery industry fell 4.87%
On Friday, the chemical fertilizer industry index reported 1359105 points, down 4.87%, with a turnover of 24.075 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.79%. 10 stocks in the sector fell by the limit.
