In the early morning of April 22, four funds managed by Zhang Kun, including e fund blue chip selection, e fund high-quality selection, e fund high-quality enterprises held by e fund for three years and e Fund Asia selection, released the first quarterly report of 2022. The data showed that by the end of the first quarter of 2022, Zhang Kun’s management scale had reached 84.928 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.008 billion yuan from 101936 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter.
Among them, the scale of e fund blue chip selection at the end of the first quarter of 2022 was 55.272 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.351 billion yuan compared with 67.623 billion yuan at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021; The scale of e-fonda’s high-quality selection transformed from e-fonda’s medium and small cap was 16.867 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter, down 3.117 billion yuan from 19.984 billion yuan at the end of 2021; E fund high-quality enterprises held for three years, with a scale of 8.104 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter, a decrease of 1.813 billion yuan compared with 9.917 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter; The scale of e Fund Asia selection (QDII) was 4.685 billion yuan, a slight increase of 273 million yuan compared with 4.412 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter.
In the past quarter, the net value of e fund blue chip selection, e fund high-quality selection, e fund high-quality enterprise held for three years and e Fund Asia selection decreased by 18.04%, 17.06%, 18.28% and 6.61% respectively. Behind the withdrawal of net worth, Zhang Kun said he still holds a high-quality company with excellent business model, clear industry pattern and strong competitiveness. From the perspective of industry allocation, he further adjusted the positions of his four products in the first quarter. The three products of e fund blue chip selection, e fund high-quality enterprises held for three years, and e fund high-quality selection increased the allocation of technology and other industries, reduced the allocation of Finance and other industries, and e fund high-quality enterprises held for three years also increased the allocation of medicine; E Fund Asia selection has increased the allocation of energy, medical and other industries and reduced the allocation of real estate and other industries.
The obvious decline in the net value of products not only makes the holders feel anxious, but also makes Zhang Kun feel the same. This anxiety comes more from the fear of continued decline in the future. “When you imagine a painful thing that may happen, it feels no less than real pain.”
Zhang Kun likened the stock to the weather, believing that it is always changing, unpredictable and difficult to grasp, and the enterprise value, like the climate, is always changing slowly and regularly. “Although the short-term market faces many difficulties, it also provides quite attractive prices for long-term investors.” Zhang Kun said.
e fund blue chip selection: additional meituan Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) reduction Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Tencent holdings
In terms of scale, among the four funds managed by Zhang Kun, e fund blue chip selection, e fund high-quality selection, and e fund high-quality enterprise holdings have declined to varying degrees in three years.
Among them, the scale of e fund blue chip selection at the end of the first quarter of 2022 was 55.272 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.351 billion yuan compared with 67.623 billion yuan at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021. In the first quarter, the net value of the product fell by 18.04%, and its stock position was basically stable, 93.41% at the end of the first quarter, slightly lower than 94.23% at the end of last year.
During this period, Zhang Kun adjusted the product structure, increased the allocation of science and technology and other industries, and reduced the allocation of Finance and other industries.
In terms of individual stocks, Zhang Kun still holds a high-quality company with excellent business model, clear industry pattern and strong competitiveness. By the end of March, the top ten heavyweight stocks of the fund were: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Tencent holdings, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , HKEx, Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) 887, meituan.
Compared with the fourth quarter of 2021, the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) shares held by e fund blue chip selection decreased from 3.2 million shares to 3.153 million shares, but the company jumped from the previous third largest heavyweight share to its largest heavyweight share, with a market value of 5.42 billion yuan. At the same time, Tencent holdings, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , among which the number of shares held by Tencent holdings was reduced from 183262 million to 17.6 million, the number of shares held by Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) from 127 million to 126 million, and the number of shares held by Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) from 37.7 million to 36.3 million.
Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and meituan were selected and increased by e fund blue chip. In the first quarter, the number of shares of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) held by the product increased from 26 million to 27 million, and the number of shares of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) increased from 28.4 million to 323601 million. In addition, the product increased meituan’s holdings to the tenth largest heavy position in the first quarter, with 22 million shares. Previously, at the end of 2021, meituan was its 11th largest heavy position stock, with 16.6 million shares.
In the first quarter, the above products still held 115 million China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) a shares, but the 15.7 million China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) Hong Kong shares held by the end of 2021 have disappeared. At the same time, the number of shares held by the fund on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) is still 16.58 million and 116 million respectively.
In the same period, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) withdrew from the list of the top ten heavyweight stocks of the fund. At the end of 2021, the fund held Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 188 million shares, with a market value of 3.098 billion yuan.
e fund high quality selection: reduction of shareholding China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) additional allocation of science and technology medicine
The high-quality selection of e-fonda, transformed from the medium and small cap of e-fonda, was RMB 16.867 billion at the end of the first quarter, a decrease of RMB 3.117 billion compared with RMB 19.984 billion at the end of 2021. In the first quarter, the net value of the product fell by 17.06%, and its stock position was basically stable, 93.62% at the end of the first quarter, slightly lower than 94.50% at the end of last year.
From the perspective of industry configuration, Zhang Kun increased the configuration of medicine, science and technology and other industries for the above products in the first quarter, and reduced the configuration of Finance and other industries.
The top ten heavyweight stocks are: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Tencent holdings, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , JD group, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , and HKEx. Compared with the end of last year, there was no “new face” in its top ten positions.
Although e Fonda’s high-quality selection reduced its holdings of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , the company jumped from the third largest heavy position stock at the beginning of the quarter to the first, holding 35.8 million shares and a stock market value of 1.675 billion yuan.
At the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, the fund held 39 million shares of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) .
The shares also reduced by e fund’s high-quality selection include Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) and the Hong Kong stock exchange. According to the data, in the first quarter, the number of shares held by the fund in Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) decreased from 935000 to 921000, the number of shares held by Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) decreased from 37 million to 32 million, the number of shares held by Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) decreased from 27.001 million, and the number of shares held by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange also decreased from 3.5 million to 3.45 million.
Tencent holdings, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , JD group, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) were increased. In the first quarter, the fund’s shareholding in Tencent holdings increased from 5.27 million shares at the end of last year to 5.3656 million shares, its shareholding in Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) increased from 8.42 million shares at the end of last year to 9.5501 million shares, its shareholding in JD group increased from 6 million shares at the end of last year to 6.767 million shares, and its shareholding in Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) also decreased from 6.66 million shares to 6.8601 million shares
It is worth noting that by the end of the first quarter, e fund’s high-quality selection still held Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) 10.001 million shares, which remained unchanged.
e Fund Asia selection: additional energy and medical
According to the first quarterly report of 2022, the scale of e Fund Asia selection at the end of the first quarter was 4.685 billion yuan, a slight increase of 273 million yuan compared with 4.412 billion yuan at the end of the fourth quarter of last year. It is also the only fund with growth in scale among the four funds managed by Zhang Kun. The net share growth rate of the fund in the first quarter was – 6.61%, higher than the benchmark performance of – 8.45% in the same period.
In terms of stock position, as of the end of the first quarter, the fund’s stock position was 92.95%, up 1.18% from 91.77% in the previous quarter. In terms of fund operation, Zhang Kun said that it has adjusted the structure, increased the allocation of energy, medical and other industries, and reduced the allocation of real estate and other industries.
Specifically, the largest heavy position stock of the fund has changed from the Hong Kong stock exchange to Alibaba. However, from the perspective of shareholding, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has not been reduced, but has been increased by 270000 shares. In the first quarter, the share price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange fell from HK $477.65 to HK $314.
Bubble mart and CNOOC became the top ten heavyweight stocks, and China Overseas Development and Master Kang withdrew from the top ten. In addition, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , JD group and meituan were increased, while Tencent holdings, Mengniu Dairy and Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) were reduced.
The top ten heavyweight stocks are Alibaba, Tencent holdings, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , JD group, Hong Kong stock exchange, Mengniu Dairy, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , meituan, bubble mart and CNOOC.
e fund quality enterprise held for three years: reduction of financial assets
The quarterly report shows that as of the end of the first quarter, the three-year holding scale of e fund quality enterprises was 8.104 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.813 billion yuan compared with 9.917 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter. The net value of the fund fell by 18.28% in the first quarter, far lower than – 10.13% of the performance benchmark in the same period.
In the first quarter, Zhang Kun basically maintained the stock position of the fund, but made structural adjustment to the fund position, increased technology and other industries, and reduced the allocation of Finance and other industries.
Specifically, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) returned to the largest position, holding 462000 shares. However, Zhang Kun has made a small reduction in Maotai in the first quarter. At the end of the last quarter, he held 470000 shares of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) of . Meituan became the top ten heavyweight stocks in the first quarter, while Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) has withdrawn from the top ten.
In addition, Tencent holdings, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , etc. decreased their holdings in different ranges.
The top ten heavyweight stocks are Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Tencent holdings, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , HKEx, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) and meituan.
similarly anxious Zhang Kun: the stock is as unpredictable as the weather
Zhang Kun admitted in the quarterly report: “in the first quarter, the net value of the fund fell significantly, which made many holders feel anxious, and I have the same feeling.”.
He analyzed this anxiety – anxiety may come not only from the decline that has been achieved, but also from the fear of further decline in the future. After all, the brain is naturally aware of trends, even if they don’t exist. If a stock rises for three consecutive days, people will automatically feel that it will rise on the fourth day. If the stock does rise on the fourth day, dopamine will be released and people will feel satisfied. Moreover, the feeling of anticipating good and bad things is often stronger than actually experiencing them. When imagining the possible painful things, the feeling is no less than real pain.
Zhang Kun mentioned in the quarterly report that when people were asked “will this stock continue to rise?”, The feeling is that the system will “trick” them into answering a very different question, “is this stock rising all the time?”, Investors are often hard to realize this.
He pointed out that after millions of years of natural selection, our brain has formed the characteristics that are most conducive to survival, but some of them are unfavorable to investment. For example, the part of rational analysis (cerebral cortex) is much weaker than the powerful power of the most primitive part of the brain – the sensory and emotional system (amygdala and insula).
When dealing with information, the sensory system often takes over at the first time. We need to spend considerable energy and time to take over with the rational analysis system. This makes people sometimes involuntarily replace a difficult problem with another simpler one.
“We can’t change these characteristics of the brain. After all, we have survived the primitive society with cruel living conditions by relying on these characteristics. Frankly accepting these characteristics may be the premise of maintaining peace of mind, and then we can avoid the damage of investment by these characteristics.” Zhang Kun said frankly.
So what can we do when stocks fall?
Zhang Kun’s advice to everyone is to take some time and restraint to calm down and then ask yourself a few questions:
\u3000\u30001. Does my fear come from the decline of share price or from the negative change of fundamentals?
\u3000\u30002. Does the original investment reason no longer exist?
\u3000\u30003. The share price is lower. As a long-term net buyer, shouldn’t I be happier?
He believes that the most reliable way to judge the authenticity of something is to prove its wrongness (falsification). This way of thinking can effectively inhibit the sensory system, because the sensory system is good at dealing with vivid facts such as “what is”, and our rational analysis system will be forcibly invoked in the face of abstract concepts such as “what is not” or “why”.
Buffett once mentioned that for an investor, the most important thing is temperament. In Zhang Kun’s view, the most important thing is the ability to control emotions and maintain rationality.
He also quoted Graham as saying that most investors failed because they were too concerned about the current operation of the stock market. For such investors, it might be better for the stock to have no market quotation at all. Because in this way, he will not suffer mental torture because of the wrong judgment of others. The human reflex system pays so much attention to change that it is difficult for it to notice what remains constant. The stock price, like the weather, is always changing, unpredictable and difficult to grasp, while the enterprise value, like the climate, is always changing slowly and regularly. Although in the short term, it seems that it is the weather that catches our attention and determines the environment, in the long run, it is the climate that really determines the environment of a region.
Therefore, he believes that although the short-term market faces many difficulties, it also provides quite attractive prices for long-term investors. He believes that the free cash flow accumulated by enterprises every day will be reflected in the accumulation of their value, and the growing enterprise value will eventually be projected into the growth of their market value
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