A-share innovation gradually cooled down. A person from a head securities firm even said, “we don’t recommend it for more than half a year.”
Recently, the number of effective subscribers to the sci tech Innovation Board has continued to decline. In April, the average number of effective subscribers was only 4.41 million, the lowest in nearly a year. At the same time, the oversubscription ratio of playing new decreased, and the winning rate gradually increased. The average online winning rate in the first quarter of this year was 3.77%, while the average winning rate in the third and fourth quarters of last year was less than 3%, especially in the third quarter, it was only 2.81%, an increase of nearly 1 percentage point.
Since this year, 37 stocks have been listed on the science and innovation board. As of April 20, 29 stocks have fallen below the issue price, accounting for 78.38%. A private placement person in Shanghai said, “it is difficult to play new in the downward trend of the market. If the new shares are issued at the previous price, the probability of breaking is very high, and the risk return of playing new shares will not match.”
According to the calculation of Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) , under the assumption that all new shares are shortlisted, the new income of 200 million scale account in November 2021 is estimated to be 1669400 yuan based on the average winning rate of class a offline. The new revenue in March 2022 was 530300 yuan and that in April was – 100400 yuan.
make new enthusiasm “cool down”
The science and Innovation Board launched a new “cooling” online. In the past half year, the number of effective subscription households on the science and Innovation Board showed a downward trend. According to the data of the past year, the number of effective subscription households for online issuance of science and Innovation Board reached a high in September and October last year, and then the scale “cliff style” decreased, showing a downward trend in the past half year. Especially since March, many shares have fallen below 5 million.
From the monthly data, the average number of effective online subscription households in September and October last year exceeded 6 million, and then decreased month by month. The number of effective subscription households in recent March was less than 5 million. As of April 15, 2022, the average number of effective monthly subscription households for online issuance of shares on the science and Innovation Board was only 4.41 million, the lowest in nearly a year.
This year, the oversubscription ratio of online innovation on the science and Innovation Board decreased, and the winning rate gradually increased. According to the data, in April (as of April 20), the average online oversubscription multiple of ten IPO companies on the science and Innovation Board was 2552, and the average winning rate was 3.94%; The average oversubscription multiple in the first quarter of this year was 2959, with an average winning rate of 3.77%.
Last year, the popularity of online innovation was high, and the winning rate was relatively low. The data show that in 2021, the average online oversubscription multiple of the science and Innovation Board exceeded 3000 in each quarter, and even reached 3662 in the third quarter Followed by a decline in the online lottery winning rate. The average winning rate of online innovation in the third and fourth quarters of last year was less than 3%, especially 2.81% in the third quarter.
More prominently, the number of online issuance and abandonment of shares on the science and innovation board has increased significantly. In the first quarter and third quarter of 2021, the average number of online repurchases was only more than 10000 shares, and the number of Beijing Haitian Ruisheng Science Technology Ltd(688787) repurchases listed in August last year was only 1055 shares; In the fourth quarter, the average number of abandoned online purchases rose to 140000 shares. This year, it has doubled. In the first quarter, the average number of abandoned shares on the Internet was 320000 shares. So far in April, the average number of abandoned shares on the Internet has even reached 1.15 million shares. Among them, Jingwei Hengrun has abandoned the purchase of 3.26 million shares online, setting a historical record of Kechuang board.
organization’s enthusiasm for new development decreases
At the same time, the participation enthusiasm of institutional investors has also decreased. According to the data, in April, an average of 2328 public funds, insurance funds and other class a institutions participated in the offline placement of stocks on the science and innovation board, falling below 3000; In the first quarter of this year, there were still an average of 3011 class a offline institutions. In the third quarter of last year, an average of 4212 class a institutions were allocated offline.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that from the perspective of fund companies, in the past three months (i.e. from January 2022 to now), there were 57 fund companies with a participation rate of more than 90% in new shares. Compared with the tracking data a month ago (from December 2021 to March 18, 2022, there were 85 fund companies with a participation rate of more than 90%), the participation rate of fund companies decreased rapidly.
From the perspective of products, the median participation rate of active equity funds in the past three months was 83.12%, the shortlisted rate of inquiry was 64%, the median participation rate of fixed income + funds in the past three months was 71.43%, and the shortlisted rate of inquiry was 62.5%. Some fixed income + funds took the lead in withdrawing from the new market.
hit new revenue decline
Since 2022, affected by the repeated epidemic situation and the turbulent situation in Russia and Ukraine, the overall market situation has fluctuated downward. In addition, there are many unprofitable, overvalued and premium companies in new shares, which makes the batch of registered new shares break out on the first day. In 2022, the breaking number and breaking rate of the science and innovation board and the gem have exceeded the level after the new regulations in 2021.
Data show that since this year, 37 stocks have been listed on the science and innovation board. As of April 20, 29 stocks have fallen below the issue price, accounting for 78.38%. Among them, Jingwei Hengrun, which encountered a high proportion of new shares abandoned by 10% of investors, responded to the breaking curse. It broke at the opening of the first day of listing, down 15.61%, and closed at 100.01 yuan, down 17.35% from the issue price. As of April 21, the price of Jingwei Hengrun continued to fall to 93.99 yuan.
With the breaking of new shares, the new income may gradually decline. According to the calculation of Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) , under the assumption that all new shares are shortlisted in the 200 million scale account and the average winning rate of offline class A, the new revenue in November 2021 is 1669400 yuan, the new revenue in December 2021 is 1440700 yuan, the new revenue in January 2022 is 878200 yuan, the new revenue in February 2022 is 189900 yuan, the new revenue in March 2022 is 530300 yuan, and the new revenue in April 2022 is -100400 yuan.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that the IPO may break, and the new strategy may achieve negative returns. There are many uncertain factors ahead of the IPO, which may suspend the issuance and affect the new income. Factors such as the number of new shares listed, the number of new shares subscribed and the fluctuation of sentiment in the secondary market may also affect the new income.
Kaiyuan Securities believes that with the breaking of new rules on inquiry gradually becoming normal on the first day after the implementation, offline institutional investors began to selectively participate in innovation in order to ensure the winning rate. The number of participating accounts and shortlisted rate of the registration system sector on broken new shares are significantly lower than those on non broken new shares, indicating that investors are more cautious about the participation and quotation of new shares with breaking risk, The new strategy is gradually changing from “playing every new game” to “optimizing individual stocks”. Among them, the winning rate and yield of new share projects with low issuance price, low issuance PE and low issuance market value are relatively better.
