[strategic view]
Since February 2022, the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine can be divided into four stages: at present, it is in the fourth stage: since April 18, 2022, the decisive battle of Donbas has become the focus. Russia's strategy aims at the independent status of Donbas, Crimea and Donetsk and reaching a political agreement with UDA.
At present, the United States and its allies have jointly frozen Russia's foreign exchange reserves of about US $300 billion in overseas banks. Developing countries, especially the other three BRIC countries, such as Brazil, China and India, are mainly neutral to the situation between Russia and Ukraine.
The military strength of the two sides is superior to that of Russia: Russia has an advantage of nearly 5:1 in conventional military strength. Russia is more fully prepared for the first-line battle of Donbas. The total number of Ukrainian troops in eastern Ukraine is expected to be 70000. Ukrainian armored forces are expected to have only 300 tanks left, which is extremely weak. Russia's total military strength exceeded 200000. The total armor force is expected to exceed 1500 tanks. The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine will reach its peak before the victory day on May 9.
The biggest impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine: China's traditional energy is superior to new energy again
The goals of "carbon peak" in 2030 and "carbon neutralization" in 2060 may undergo major policy adjustments with the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine. At present, the import of traditional energy in Sino Russian trade has increased significantly. It is expected that from 2022 to 2025, the proportion of coal in energy will reach more than 59%, which will remain dominant for a long time. Among them, the proportion of nuclear power will increase year by year, and the growth rate of wind power and photovoltaic power generation may be lower than expected. In the next three years, the proportion of clean energy will gradually fall from 25.3%.
The second biggest impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine: food security has become China's core strategic point
Under the global food crisis, China and Russia recently reached cooperation on food security. China has fully opened its imports of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) of corn, soybeans, barley and wheat from Russia, and proposed that China's food self-sufficiency rate will increase to about 88% in the next decade. The fields of crop seeds, crop planting, agricultural machinery, chemical fertilizers and pesticides and food processing in the food security industrial chain will usher in continuous investment.
The third major impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine: closer economic ties of the SCO
Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, SCO member states have remained neutral as a whole and continued to maintain bilateral trade with Russia (China and India have increased energy imports from Russia at the same time). As a new pole in a multipolar world, SCO has a huge market of 3.5 billion people and is expected to provide a new core economic growth point. Enterprises that seize the endogenous growth opportunities in the economic circle will have the opportunity to continue to grow.
[risk tips]
Global geopolitical risks
Market liquidity risk
