Strategic view
On Thursday, the three major stock indexes in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose briefly at the beginning of the session and then fell all the way. After the failure of long counter attack in the afternoon, the index expanded its decline again Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) pulled back after breaking through the 400 yuan mark in the late trading, helping the gem index recover the 2300 point mark. As of the close, the Shanghai stock index fell 2.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.70%, the gem index fell 2.17%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.84%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.33%, and the China Stock Exchange 500 fell 3.31%. The number of gainers in the two cities was 330, lower than the average value of 1882 last week and 1308 in the previous trading day. The number of daily limit was 42, lower than the average value of 73 last week and 66 the previous trading day. The number of decliners in the two cities was 4409, higher than the average value of 2789 last week and higher than 3367 in the previous trading day. The number of drop limits was 123, higher than the average value of 51 last week and 43 in the previous trading day. The net inflow of northbound funds was 911 million yuan, with an average net inflow of 719 million yuan last week and a net outflow of 5.288 billion yuan the previous trading day. The turnover of the two cities was 856529 billion yuan, with an average value of 907097 billion yuan last week and 820742 billion yuan the previous trading day. The weak rebound expectation has been broken, and the market is moving in an extreme direction. The core problem lies in the unclear logic of long-term long-term growth and the lack of investor confidence. Especially in the recent stage, the US dollar index has continued to strengthen, the RMB exchange rate has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate has broken through 6.4, significantly breaking through the strong range of about 6.3 in the early stage. For the market, taking the above certificate as an example, there may be a probability of falling below the integer threshold of 3000 points. For investors, we believe that the falling space of the index is not being opened, but is converging rapidly. In particular, the ERP index shows that the allocation value of stocks is basically close to the top of history.
Stock index futures trading strategy
Viewpoint: market sentiment is low, and the index is weak and volatile
(1) on April 21, the positions of if, IH and IC contracts were 229000, 113800 and 354700 respectively, with the changes of 5.49%, 7.74% and 4.57% on a daily basis;
(2) on April 21, the difference between the contract and spot price of if, IH and IC in the current month was 2.97 points, 3.67 points and - 40.4 points, 19.16 points, 5.02 points and 12.32 points higher than the previous trading day. Operation suggestion: if2205 mainly sells at every high, and the resistance level is 4060 points
Option trading strategy
Viewpoint: the index continues to be weak, and there is insufficient action on the market
(1) on April 21, the PCR (positions) of 50ETF option, Huatai 300etf option, harvest 300etf option and 300 stock index option were 0.6, 0.74, 0.77 and 0.7 respectively, of which the PCR values of 50ETF and 300etf options decreased slightly;
(2) on April 21, the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option were 24% and 24.2% respectively, and the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option rebounded significantly.
Operation suggestion: radical strategy: sell 300etf to buy 4100 options in April; Robust strategy: none; Hedging strategy: None
Risk tips
1. Rapid cooling of market transactions; 2 short term panic continued to spread risk factors.
