[next week's strategy]
Review of this week's trend
The market continued to fluctuate and adjust this week. The weekly K line of the Shanghai index was negative for three times, and the Shanghai index fell 3100 points. The index rose and fell at the beginning of the week, and then fluctuated slightly. The decline of the index expanded on Wednesday and Thursday, and the Shanghai index fell below 3100 points. Finally, the three major indexes fell below the five-day moving average. From the weekly K-line, the Shanghai index fell 3.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.12%, and the gem index led the decline of 6.66%. The individual stock sector showed a general downward trend, with only textile and clothing rising; Coal, medicine and biology, non-ferrous metals, steel, real estate and other sectors led the decline. This week, there was a net inflow of 444 million yuan from the north, including a net outflow of 1.329 billion yuan from the Shanghai stock market and a net inflow of 1.773 billion yuan from the Shenzhen stock market.
Study and judgment of the general trend next week: continue the shock repeatedly and wait for the repair opportunity
Judging from the market this week:
First, GDP growth in the first quarter was slightly higher than expected, the impact of the epidemic on consumption was weak, and the policy force was expected to be strengthened.
Secondly, more departments should strengthen their support for the real economy, and the finance should make efforts to stabilize the economy.
Thirdly, LPR has been flat for three consecutive years, with a small net inflow of funds from the north, and the capital surface is stable and loose.
Overall, the index fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a sluggish performance, and the individual stock sector showed a general downward trend. From the market environment next week, China's PMI data will be released in April. It is expected to be still below the boom and bust line, and the short-term economic data may still be weak. Pay attention to the changes of China's epidemic situation. However, many departments have increased their support for the real economy. The Ministry of finance has issued special bonds of 1.25 trillion yuan in the first quarter, which has played an important role in stabilizing the macro economy. Overseas, the US China inflation data continued to rise, the Fed's expectation of accelerating interest rate hike in may further heated up, and the upside down of China US interest rate spread continued. However, China's market interest rates remained low and liquidity remained stable and abundant. In addition, the CSRC Symposium requires institutional investors to improve their investment management ability, especially their equity investment ability, and actively expand the breadth and depth of their participation in the capital market, which will help stabilize market confidence. Technically, the index continued to fluctuate and fall, the three major indexes were negative for three consecutive weeks, the trend continued to be weak, and the market risk appetite decreased. The popularity of the short-term market is low, and the wait-and-see mood may continue. With the volume and energy shrinking, it is expected that the short-term market will still be in a pattern of repeated shocks. However, in the medium term, with the stability of China's epidemic situation and the subsequent implementation of stable growth policies, the market will usher in a trend of gradual shock repair, pay attention to the change of volume and energy and the flow of funds to the north, and pay attention to the opportunities in finance, real estate, building materials, steel, household appliances, food and beverage, electrical equipment and other industries.
Operation suggestions
It is suggested to pay attention to finance, real estate, building materials, steel, household appliances, food and beverage, electrical equipment and other industries.
Risk tips:
China's epidemic has repeatedly hindered economic development and further increased the downward pressure on the economy; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued, driving the high price of bulk commodities, increasing the cost pressure of enterprises, and the profits of industrial manufacturing were continuously compressed.
