In terms of the external environment, in terms of the epidemic situation, the number of new cases in the world has continued to decline, and the number of confirmed cases in a single day has dropped to about 500000. In terms of economy, the further recovery of capacity utilization in the United States in March means that the impact of the epidemic on its production side continues to weaken, while the consumer confidence index remains low after a slight rebound, the suppression of inflation on consumer expectations has not changed significantly, the marginal change of supply and demand is expected to gradually curb its inflationary pressure, while the inflationary pressure in Europe is further high due to geographical conflicts, The acceleration of the normalization of monetary policy in the region is expected to strengthen.
In terms of China's environment, under the interference of the epidemic, it is not easy for China's GDP to grow by 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter. Infrastructure investment has become an important supporting factor on the demand side, and optional consumption has become an important drag on the demand side due to the impact of the epidemic. At the same time, real estate investment is still under pressure, the year-on-year growth rate is close to zero, and manufacturing investment has also fallen. In view of the great concern of the market for the economy, the article "ten questions on China's economy" published in the people's daily undoubtedly provides valuable information: in the face of the economic downturn, employment pressure bears the brunt and has become the top priority of the current economic work. The solution is not only to stabilize the economy and stabilize the main body of the market by releasing domestic demand and stabilizing foreign trade, We should also promote the matching of supply and demand through "grasping the basic, ensuring the key points and expanding the space"; In view of the real estate market, on the one hand, the article emphasizes that we must firmly hold the positioning of "housing, housing and non speculation", but also points out the importance of maintaining the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, and strive to achieve the goal of stabilizing land price, house price and expectation. Therefore, we believe that when the growth of external demand will be further under pressure, the recovery of consumption remains to be observed, and "factors such as the rise of raw materials, the decline of enterprise efficiency and the epidemic situation" will still have an impact on investment, the stability maintenance policies in various fields are expected to continue to be promoted.
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, real estate transactions rebounded slightly, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index continued to decline (the decline in vegetable prices was the leading factor). In the middle reaches, steel prices fluctuated slightly and cement prices continued to rebound. Upstream, the price of thermal coal fluctuated in a narrow range, and the price of coking coal and coke peaked and fell; Nonferrous metal prices remained strong, with zinc prices hitting a new high and aluminum prices rebounding from the bottom; Precious metal prices continued to rise, while crude oil prices fluctuated downward.
Risk tip: the development of the international epidemic exceeded expectations
