This year's government work report puts forward extremely high requirements for economic growth, and the target GDP growth rate of about 5.5% is at the upper limit of market expectations. Under the "triple pressure", China's fiscal tight balance has further intensified this year. In this context, the target deficit ratio is set at 2.8%, which is at the lower limit of the market expectation range and intuitively conservative. Although it reflects the requirements of "enhancing fiscal sustainability", it seems to be in contradiction with the positive growth goal.
Although the target deficit ratio has been significantly reduced this year, the degree of fiscal enthusiasm is actually significantly stronger than last year. The actual enthusiasm of the narrow fiscal deficit is significantly higher than the target deficit. Under the medium caliber, the enthusiasm of the fiscal deficit is further improved. On the income side, the scale of tax reduction and fee reduction of 2.5 trillion this year will be significantly higher than that of last year, of which 1.5 trillion is value-added tax rebate. On the expenditure side, the intensity of fiscal expenditure has increased significantly this year; In terms of rhythm, finance actively moves forward.
A large number of special fiscal arrangements have been made this year, making it possible to actively finance under the low target deficit rate. The government raised 2.33 trillion yuan for the general public budget through "cross period" and "cross account book", plus 1.65 trillion yuan of profits paid by specific state-owned financial institutions and franchise institutions. The total amount raised under the medium caliber was 3.08 trillion yuan (deducting 900 billion yuan of double calculation), an increase of about 1.4 trillion yuan over last year, equivalent to increasing the deficit ratio by 1.1 percentage points.
Historically, it is not an isolated case that certain state-owned financial institutions turn in profits to the central government. It is worth noting that this year's balance profit has changed significantly. The balance profit of more than 1 trillion paid by the central bank reflects the synergy of monetary policy and fiscal policy, and the positive effect on the economy will be more reflected in the financial side.
Although this year's fiscal policy stance is much more positive than in the past, its expansionary effect on the economy is constrained in many ways. First, the tight fiscal balance of local governments has intensified. On the one hand, the growth of fiscal revenue is facing a downward trend; On the other hand, the task of the expenditure side is heavy and the intensity is greatly improved, but the structure is further inclined to key areas such as people's livelihood, so the pulling effect on investment is limited. Secondly, the role of the 1.5 trillion tax rebate is more to bail out than to stimulate investment. In addition, the implementation and implementation of proactive finance also faces the challenge of incentive mechanism under multi-objective.
In order to alleviate local financial pressure, the central government has made a lot of targeted arrangements this year. On the one hand, we will strengthen transfer payments to local governments and improve the normalized direct financial fund mechanism. On the other hand, reduce the burden of local tax rebates. More than 90% of the 1.5 trillion tax rebates will be borne by the central government.
Under the "triple pressure", the active fiscal policy presents new characteristics different from the past. The government raised a large amount of funds through "cross period" and "cross account book" methods and the profits handed over by specific state-owned financial institutions and franchised institutions. The government has made positive arrangements at both ends of revenue and expenditure. The large-scale transfer payment and direct fund mechanism is intended to support the grass-roots level to implement tax rebates, reduce taxes and fees, ensure employment and basic people's livelihood, and improve the efficiency of fund use. However, the decline of land transfer income, the tight balance of local government revenue and expenditure, the intensification of pressure and the impact of a new round of epidemic will restrict the expansionary effect of positive finance. In terms of rhythm, this year's fiscal policy will support the economy by moving forward.
