Event:
According to the data released by the Ministry of finance, the national general revenue was 62.8 billion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; The national general public budget expenditure was 6358.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%; The budget revenue of national government funds was 1384.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.6%; The budget expenditure of national government funds was 2478.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43%.
Key points:
The growth of public revenue slowed down, and tax and fee reductions continued to advance
Public revenue in the first quarter was relatively stable on the whole, mainly due to the steady recovery of the economy in the first two months. However, affected by the impact of the epidemic in March, the downward pressure on the economy increased, and the growth rate of public revenue slowed down significantly. In terms of Taxation, except for the enterprise income tax, there was an uneven decline compared with the previous two months. The enterprise income tax was mainly driven by the stable recovery of the industrial economy and the profit growth of industrial enterprises, of which the income tax of industrial enterprises increased by 20.4%, but the income tax of real estate and construction enterprises decreased year-on-year. In 2022, it is estimated that the tax rebate and tax reduction will be about 2.5 trillion yuan to deal with the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply impact and weakening expectation. At the same time, it will also put some pressure on fiscal revenue.
The speed of public financial expenditure has been accelerated, and the development of infrastructure has driven steady growth
In the first quarter, it completed 23.8% of the annual public financial expenditure budget, 0.3 percentage points faster than last year, and the leading force of financial expenditure appeared. From the perspective of expenditure items, the expenditure on people's livelihood is still guaranteed, of which the expenditure on education, culture, tourism, sports and media, social security and employment increased by 8.5%, 7.7% and 6.8% respectively. It is worth noting that the performance of infrastructure expenditure was weak last year. This year, the overall growth rate of import and export fell relatively, and the epidemic impacted consumption. As an important means of counter cyclical regulation, infrastructure is an important driving force for steady economic growth this year. In the first quarter, the expenditure on urban and rural community affairs, agriculture, forestry and water affairs and transportation increased by 7.5%, 8.4% and 10.9% respectively, showing a bright performance, and the infrastructure driven steady growth. With the advance issuance of the new special debt limit in 2022 and the acceleration of fiscal expenditure, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to further develop in the first half of this year.
More than 60% of the special bonds are invested in the field of infrastructure
In the first quarter, the income from land transfer fees fell sharply, but with the weakening of the impact of the epidemic and the gradual effectiveness of policies, including the support of enterprise financing and the relaxation of the demand side of more key urban residents, the market expectation will be gradually boosted, and the real estate market is expected to stabilize in the second quarter. In terms of special bonds, in December last year, the Ministry of Finance issued a new special bond quota of 1.46 trillion yuan in 2022, about three months earlier than the previous year. In the first quarter, all localities issued new special bonds of up to 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.23 trillion yuan over last year. More than 60% of the special bond funds were invested in the field of infrastructure, which also led to a high growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first quarter.
Risk tips:
Protracted epidemic situation; Global liquidity margin tightening; The Fed's interest rate hike and table contraction exceeded expectations; The geopolitical crisis in Europe has expanded.
