Event: the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on promoting the development of individual pension (hereinafter referred to as the opinions) to promote the construction of multi-level and multi pillar old-age insurance system and promote the sustainable development of the old-age insurance system, so as to meet the growing demand for diversified old-age insurance.
Key investment points
After more than four years of pilot tax deferred pension insurance, the individual pension account system has been explored and implemented. 1) The lead agency for the issuance of the opinions is the State Council. Compared with the Ministry of finance, it shows the importance of supervision, and the promotion process and the increase of the upper limit of payment will be more considerable in the future. 2) In the opinion, it is clear that the accumulation system in which the payment is entirely borne by the participants can be directly purchased by individuals, and the richness of products under the account system is significantly improved. 3) The maximum annual contribution of individual pension is 12000 yuan, and the specific tax policy needs to be stipulated in the document. 4) The information platform is uniformly built by the Ministry of human resources and social security, and banks have the advantage of opening accounts. 5) We expect it to be attractive to the middle class. Taking Shanghai as an example, the ratio of annual tax preference / annual pre tax income of people with a monthly pre tax income of 1 Shenzhen Seg Co.Ltd(000058) 000 yuan exceeds the average level (0.53%), which is expected to become the main force of payment.
The pilot of individual pension policy has fully learned the lesson of “applauding but not applauding” from the previous pilot of tax extension pension insurance, which is expected to enhance the enthusiasm of the masses. 1) The annual contribution ceiling of individual pension is 12000 yuan, and the income limit of 6% during the pilot period of tax extension pension insurance will be abolished, which is expected to improve the participation enthusiasm of the public. 2) In the payment stage, individuals can purchase directly without providing relevant vouchers to the withholding unit; 3) The opinions emphasizes the provision of convenient and fast services, which is intended to solve the disadvantages of inconvenient operation and complicated process during the pilot period of tax extension endowment insurance, and is expected to improve the enthusiasm of participants.
Pension finance stars in the sea, the exploration of individual pension account system opens up incremental space, and commercial banks, public funds and insurance companies usher in development opportunities. According to the opinions, the funds in the personal pension fund account are used to purchase financial products that meet the preferences of different investors, such as bank financial management, savings deposits, commercial endowment insurance, public funds and so on. The bank has natural advantages of opening accounts and rich network resources and customer reserves, and its competitive advantage is very obvious. The competitive advantage of public funds lies in their strong ability to actively manage assets and lead the industry in investment and research. However, there is still room for improvement in guiding the long-term investment concept of Jimin. Insurance companies have certain competitive advantages in the fields of long-term investment fund management ability, longevity risk management, medical, health and pension industry coordination, but there is still room for improvement in brand accumulation.
Calculation of participation space of individual pension payment. After predicting the number of individual income tax payers in the future, the pace of liberalization in pilot areas, individual participation and the upper limit of payment deduction, we estimate that the new individual pension payment in that year will be 52.5 billion yuan in 2022, 243.9 billion yuan in 2025 and 482.8 billion yuan in 2030; Corresponding to the annual cumulative individual pension contribution scale of 564.2 billion yuan by 2025 and 2151.2 billion yuan by 2030, it has great growth space and potential. From the perspective of product participants, we expect that commercial banks are expected to take the lead in seizing the share through account advantages, public funds benefit from better historical investment performance, the share increases rapidly, and the share of insurance institutions is relatively stable. We predict that in 2025, the market share of new payment of commercial banks, public funds and insurance companies in that year will be 47%, 38% and 15%.
Investment suggestion: the growth of American IRA Account needs time accumulation, policy support, middle-class growth and capital market co prosperity. The exploration of China’s individual pension account system is still in its infancy. The field of pension finance is an important opportunity for the financial industry to grasp the quadratic growth curve. We expect that the next policy pilot will start from the establishment of a unique, dedicated and lifelong individual pension account, open up the asset transfer channel between the second and third pillar pension insurance, and further improve the space for the growth of the scale of the individual pension account system. At present, the valuation of insurance and securities companies is at the absolute bottom of history, and the exploration of individual pension account system is expected to catalyze the valuation of the sector. The insurance sector recommends Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) .
Risk tip: the growth of residents’ disposable income is less than expected, the growth of the upper limit of individual pension account payment is less than expected, the actual return on investment of the account is not attractive, and the policy promotion process is lower than expected.
