Market review: in April 2022, CSI 300 rose or fell by – 5.37% and gem rose or fell by – 12.98%. The automobile industry rose or fell by – 6.91%, Wande power battery index (884963. WI) rose or fell by – 16.66%, surpassing 0 of the 30 first tier industries of CITIC, and the national securities new energy vehicle index (399417. SZ) rose or fell by – 15.47%. Among the power battery related sectors, the nickel ore index ranked first with a monthly increase or decrease of – 9.95%, and the lithium negative electrode ranked last with a monthly increase or decrease of – 19.56%.
Power battery:
In March 2022, the output of power batteries increased significantly, and lithium iron phosphate increased significantly. In terms of production, the output of ternary battery was 1556820 MWh, a year-on-year increase of + 167.27%, and the output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 2358170 MWh, a year-on-year increase of + 332.88%.
The proportion of lithium iron phosphate loading increased. The loading volume of ternary battery is 8210 MW h, with a year-on-year increase of + 61.16%, and the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate battery is 131813 MW h, with a year-on-year increase of + 238.79%. In terms of market share of loading volume, ternary battery accounts for + 38.38%, with a year-on-year increase of -18.32pct, and lithium iron phosphate accounts for + 61.62%, with a year-on-year increase of + 18.32pct. In terms of enterprises, the share of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprises remained relatively stable, the share of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) took the lead, and the share of Byd Company Limited(002594) increased significantly year-on-year.
New energy vehicles:
The production and sales of new energy vehicles doubled year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of production and sales returned to the level at the end of last year. The monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles were 465000 and 484000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 115.23% and + 114.35% respectively.
In terms of models, the monthly production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles and new energy commercial vehicles increased year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of new energy commercial vehicles was ahead of that of new energy passenger vehicles. Among them, the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 353500 and 321200 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 195.46% and + 202.82% respectively.
In terms of power sources, the monthly production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles have increased significantly month on month and year-on-year, and the production and sales volume of single month and the cumulative production and sales volume of this year have doubled year-on-year. The sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles has performed relatively well in recent months, and the share has continued to increase.
In the past month, the battery materials remained stable as a whole, and the increase in the cost of cathode materials in the early stage was conducted to the front drive. The price of lithium carbonate is 495000 yuan / ton, lithium hydroxide 491500 yuan / ton, cobalt sulfate 119500 yuan / ton, lithium iron phosphate cathode 166000 yuan / ton, and middle end artificial graphite 51500 yuan / ton.
Investment strategy:
Recently, the upstream lithium price has ended its growth and the share prices of relevant companies have been corrected. However, at present, new energy vehicles continue to sell well. Before the development of battery recovery and other lithium extraction technologies, it is expected that the tight supply of lithium resources in the upstream will not be alleviated. The increase of raw material costs will not only promote the rise of vehicle prices, but also compress the profits of middle and downstream enterprises. Superimposed with the adverse effects of the epidemic on the industrial chain, it is expected that the overall market will maintain a bottom shock. Suggestions on the upstream of power battery industry chain: Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ; Suggestions for attention in the middle reaches of the power battery industry chain: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , beiteri; Suggestions for downstream of power battery industry chain: Byd Company Limited(002594) .
Risk tips: policy changes; Changes in lithium technology route; The sales volume of new energy vehicles was lower than expected.
