\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 339 Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) )
Core conclusion
Revenue continued to grow, and bad debt provision affected profitability. The company released its annual report for 2021, with an operating revenue of 629 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.97%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -162 million yuan, and the loss increased by 618.91% year-on-year; The company’s revenue growth benefited from the development of hydrogen fuel cell industry and the volume of Winter Olympics. We believe that the company’s revenue in 2021 is affected by the cross period of revenue recognition, and the actual revenue is better than the report data. The decrease in net profit was mainly due to the company’s further increase in the provision proportion of bad debt losses of accounts receivable of Shenlong bus and Zhongzhi Chun’an to 90%, and the provision of some inventory falling price losses. The increase of the company’s shares held by the company’s management fully demonstrates its confidence in the company’s development prospects.
The technology continues to be iterated and upgraded, and the project development is smooth. The company released the first 240kw fuel cell system product in China in December 2021. At the end of 2021, the company had 255 R & D personnel, accounting for 31.4% of the total employees, and focused on the R & D of hydrogen fuel cell system technology. In 2021, 81 complete vehicles equipped with the company’s fuel cell system were announced nationwide, accounting for 16%, ranking in the forefront of the industry.
The policy continues to be favorable, and the development of the company welcomes new opportunities. In 2021, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hebei and Henan were successively approved to start fuel vehicle demonstration operation. In 2022, Sichuan Chongqing region and Hubei Province are expected to start demonstration operation. In 2022, the national development and Reform Commission issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035), proposing that the number of fuel cell vehicles will be about 50000 by 2025. The intensive introduction of favorable policies will continue to promote the company’s future market increment.
Investment suggestion: with the gradual implementation of the first and second batch of fuel cell demonstration city clusters, the fuel cell industry has entered a period of rapid development. The company led the localization rate of fuel cell core components to continue to improve, the economy began to highlight, and the industrialization accelerated. The company plans and withdraws bad debts carefully, and takes advantage of bad debts. The management’s increased holdings demonstrated confidence. We believe that the company is about to enter a period of rapid growth. It is predicted that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 97 / 164 / 275 million yuan, yoy + 160% / + 69% / + 67% and EPS 1.36/2.30/3.85 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the fuel cell industry policy is not as expected; The sales volume of fuel cell vehicles is lower than expected; The progress of fuel cell technology is less than expected; Hydrogen energy safety risk; The collection of accounts receivable is less than expected.
